770
FXAK67 PAJK 301929
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2025
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
AND THEN OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW COULD HOLD ON LONGER FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGHWAYS, ESPECIALLY
THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS SUNDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ INCOMING FRONT FOR SUNDAY IS
ALREADY SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM
KAKE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FROM JUST
NORTH OF ANGOON TO NEAR PELICAN AND ELFIN COVE WITH LIGHT SNOW
OBSERVED AT HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT SO FAR WITH THE PRECIP RATES BEING RATHER LIGHT. PRECIP
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SO ARE
TEMPERATURES. MANY SEA LEVEL AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SNOWING ARE
VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW AND HOW MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION VARIOUS AREAS RECEIVE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THESE AREAS WARM AND SWITCH PTYPE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS
AROUND ICY STRAIT AND JUNEAU AND EVEN HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY BE STARTING TO CHANGE TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY
(MENDENHALL VALLEY AND CHILKAT VALLEY MAY WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO COOLER TEMPS THERE) SO WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE AROUND AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
WILL STAY COLDER LONGER HOWEVER SO SNOW WILL BE A PTYPE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A MIX WITH RAIN EVEN AS HIGH
AS PASS LEVEL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT). ALL OTHER LOW ELEVATION AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE MAINLY SEEING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
UPWARDS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH THE INCOMING FRONT.
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL START INCREASING LATER THIS
MORNING AND THE INNER CHANNELS WILL LIKELY START SEEING GUSTIER
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY OFFSHORE, BUT GUSTS
TO 30 OR 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE WINDS WERE INCREASED TO MIN STORM FORCE FOR MIDDAY
TODAY.
LONG TERM
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF RATHER WET AS
ONSHORE FLOW LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FROM ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CLOSELY
BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ONLY AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH THIS WILL BE THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. HOWEVER EVEN THERE A TRANSITION TO A SLUSHY MIX
AND THEN COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
LULL OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AS THE RIDGING WILL STILL SUPPORT ONSHORE MOIST FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD
SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO SINKING AIR ALOFT.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES
C, AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FT ALONGSIDE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS AT THE SURFACE, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW MIXING IN ONLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTING RAIN WILL BE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING JUST AROUND 3000 FT ALLOWING FOR
WETTER SNOW TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AS OF THIS FORECAST. OVERALL THE NE GULF COASTLINE WILL SEE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR AND YUKON, DRIVING SNOW
LEVELS DOWNWARD GRADUALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SITES
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY
LATE MORNING. SNOW COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER FOR PAHN AND PAGY
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LOW-END
MVFR TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VIS AND CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR UNDER HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIP SLOWLY
DIMINISHES, BUT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN.
WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15KT GUSTING 18-25KT. LLWS
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT, STARTING
FIRST FOR PAYA SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS LOOK TO LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAHN AND PAGY. LLWS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS 2KFT ALOFT 30-45KT.
MARINE
GULF WATERS: INCOMING FRONT WILL BE SPREADING SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WERE INCREASED TO MIN STORM FORCE FOR MIDDAY
TODAY, BUT THAT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE. THE HIGHER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SW
AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE REACHING 9 FT THIS MORNING AS A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND A 5 FT S SWELL (PERIOD 7 SEC). THE INCREASED
WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WITH A MAX
NEAR 20 FT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AROUND MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 13 FT BY EARLY MONDAY
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE IN PART TO A 8 FT SW
SWELL ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SW.
INSIDE WATERS: INCREASING S AND E WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF COMES INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 25 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT POINT EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO SWITCH TO A MORE S
AND W DIRECTION AS OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE INTO MONDAY.
SEAS MAINLY DOMINATED BY WIND WAVE UP TO 6 FT, BUT AREAS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES OPEN TO THE SW WILL SEE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 8 TO
10 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-662>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>036-053-641-661.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAL
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