609
FXAK67 PAJK 010641
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2025
UPDATE
DUE TO THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MOST OF SEAK HAS CEILINGS
OF 1200 TO 2800 FEET, AND VISIBILITIES IN 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE. SO
THE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET AND VISIBILITY AROUND 2 MILES.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 320 PM NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS AND PRECIPITATION LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
- LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM...A GALE FORCE FRONT HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE OUTER
COAST TODAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE
PANHANDLE. EARLIER IN THE MORNING, MOST COMMUNITIES IN THE INNER
CHANNELS FROM ANGOON NORTHWARD WERE REPORTING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BY LATE MORNING, THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAD TRANSITIONED TO
COLD RAIN WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW MIXED IN AND LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GROUND GOING FORWARD. WHILE NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM, A SOUTHERLY SURGE MOVING UP THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION AT SEA
LEVEL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS.
THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, SKAGWAY AND HAINES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY IS STILL UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO A
MIX AND THEN RAIN. OVERALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND MONDAY, THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE FOLLOWING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS THE RIDGING WILL STILL SUPPORT ONSHORE MOIST
FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD
SHOULD HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST
AND YAKUTAT AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PAN OUT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES
C, AND SNOW LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FT ALONGSIDE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WET BULBS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW MIXING IN ONLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTING RAIN WILL BE THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING JUST AROUND 3000 FT
ALLOWING FOR WETTER SNOW TO CONTINUE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS OF THIS FORECAST. OVERALL THE NE GULF
COASTLINE WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH IN 24 HOURS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH THIS WEEK/...THE UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK. THERE WILL BE LULLS BETWEEN
THE FRONTAL PASSAGES BUT THE OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS CLOUDY AND RAINY THIS WEEK. BUT LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THE LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW.
AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER WITH
ON/OFF TYPE RAIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CHANGE. THE LONG TERM WEATHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
KIND OF PATTERN USUALLY ALLOWS FOR COLD AIR FROM CANADA TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO SE AK WHILE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF AT
THE MID TO HIGHER LEVELS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CALLED
OVERRUNNING AND HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW HERE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE THE COLD AIR
FROM THE NORTH AND THE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THESE TWO VARIABLES
WILL BE FIGHTING EACH OTHER. TOO MUCH COLD/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH
CAUSES THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIMITED. TOO MUCH WIND FROM THE
GULF CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX AND THE SNOW SWITCHES TO RAIN.
BUT WHERE THAT BALANCE SETS UP JUST RIGHT IS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY.
AS OF NOW, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
TREND IS ON THE SNOWY SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SPECTRUM. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR PAGY, WHICH COULD REMAIN SNOW A TOUCH LONGER
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. GENERALLY LOW-
END MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VIS AND CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHES,
BUT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN.
WINDS 10-17KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT, STARTING
FIRST FOR PAYA SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS LOOK TO LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAHN AND PAGY. LLWS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS 2KFT ALOFT 30-45KT.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND
OVER THE COASTAL LAND AREAS AT TIME OF WRITING. A SMALL POCKET OF
EXPECTED STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 1 PM TODAY, EAST OF CAPE ST. ELIAS ALONG THE COASTLINE,
MAINLY INFLUENCED BY A BARRIER JET. EXPECTING TO SEE THE COLD
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ENE OVER THE PANHANDLE, WITH MAINLY SW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS SW FLOW TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE
SW SWELL, INCREASING HEIGHTS TO 8-10 FT, FOR A COMBINED,
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT HEIGHT OF AROUND 11-13 FT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.
INSIDE WATERS: WIND SPEEDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE
STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. EXPECTING TO
SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS,
MAXIMIZING AROUND A STRONG BREEZE WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT TO SEE A S TO SW SHIFT
IN WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN CROSS SOUND/WESTERN ICY STRAIT, AND
FREDERICK SOUND. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIKELY
TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER TIME, TO MOSTLY LIGHT AIR TO A GENTLE
BREEZE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME BRIEF
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ON BOTH CLEARING
SKIES AND CALM ENOUGH WINDS FOR RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NC
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