765
FXAK67 PAJK 011345
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
445 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK.
- LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THOUGH AT A DIMINISHED RATE
COMPARED TO OVERNIGHT. THE LAST UPPER VORTICITY CENTER FROM THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AS OF 3
AM AND TAKING ITS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH IT THOUGH SOME STILL
LINGERS IN THE FAR NORTH. MOST AREAS HAVE CONVERTED TO RAIN THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE CHILKAT VALLEY, THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, AND HYDER WHERE SNOW IS STILL BEING OBSERVED IN
WEBCAM IMAGES. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERALL AND STAYED MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY SW
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN RULE FOR MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY ON SW FACING SLOPES WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING
TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 3000 FT (1700 FT IN THE EXTREME NORTH) SO MOST
LOW ELEVATION COMMUNITIES WILL SEE THE SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE EXCEPTIONS REMAIN THE CHILKAT VALLEY, AND HYDER WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THIS
MORNING BEFORE WARMING ENOUGH TO GET A MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY LIKEWISE
WILL STAY MOSTLY SNOW AS WELL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT REACH
MORE THEN AN INCH OR THREE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
AREAS THAT STILL SEE SNOW .
WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SYSTEM'S
WAKE THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN STEPHENS PASSAGE
AND IN THE MISTY FJORDS AND SOUTHERN CLARANCE STRAIT AREAS, BUT
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE OUTER COAST WILL
BE THE AREA THAT SEE SOME WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KT AS SW FLOW
INTENSIFIES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE W AND SW. THE
ONSHORE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
BEGIN SWITCHING DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH THIS WEEK/
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING
LIKE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK. THERE WILL BE LULLS BETWEEN
THE FRONTAL PASSAGES BUT THE OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS CLOUDY AND RAINY THIS WEEK. BUT LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THE LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW.
AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER WITH
ON/OFF TYPE RAIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CHANGE. THE LONG TERM WEATHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
KIND OF PATTERN USUALLY ALLOWS FOR COLD AIR FROM CANADA TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO SE AK WHILE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF AT
THE MID TO HIGHER LEVELS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CALLED
OVERRUNNING AND HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW HERE.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE THE COLD AIR
FROM THE NORTH AND THE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THESE TWO VARIABLES
WILL BE FIGHTING EACH OTHER. TOO MUCH COLD/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH
CAUSES THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIMITED. TOO MUCH WIND FROM THE
GULF CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX AND THE SNOW SWITCHES TO RAIN.
BUT WHERE THAT BALANCE SETS UP JUST RIGHT IS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY.
AS OF NOW, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
TREND IS ON THE SNOWY SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SPECTRUM. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH COASTAL TAF SITES REPORTING IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND
VSBY AND INTERIOR AREAS SEEING MVFR WITH CIGS NEAR 1500 TO
3000FT, VSBY 5SM TO 10SM. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
OF THE MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT MOVE INTO CANADA, WITH
PRECIP TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VFR MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE; HOWEVER,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 1000 TO 2000FT ACROSS THE
INSIDE TONIGHT, WITH COASTAL AREAS LIKELY IFR FROM CIGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
LLWS THREATS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOUTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS IMPACTING THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
NEAR 10 TO 20 KNOTS, HIGHEST WINDS IN ICY STRAIT, STEPHENS
PASSAGE, AND LYNN CANAL.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: W TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT RULE THE GULF WATERS
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND STARTING TO
TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL THEN START INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND 10 FT (WITH A S SWELL AROUND 8
TO 9 FT. PERIOD OF 10 SEC) AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THAT
LEVEL THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST DUE TO PERSISTENT SW SWELL AND
THEN THE INCREASED WINDS FROM THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: STEPHENS PASSAGE, MISTY FJORDS, AND CLARENCE STRAIT
ARE STILL SEEING SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WINDS IN MOST CHANNELS SWITCH TO A W AND S
DIRECTION AS ONSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER (CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH FLOW TURNING WESTERLY ENOUGH THAT NW WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED IN CLARENCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).
HIGHEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN OCEAN
ENTRANCES THAT ARE EXPOSED TO THE W AND SW (ESPECIALLY CROSS
SOUND, AND NEAR CAPE DECISION) THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR TUESDAY BEFORE THEY INCREASE TO 20 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NEW FRONT MOVES IN. SEAS MAINLY DOMINATED BY
WIND WAVE UP TO 5 FT IN WINDIER AREAS. OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL SEE
HIGHER SEAS UP TO 8 TO 9 FT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE SW AND W DUE
TO 8 TO 9 FT SW SWELL INVADING FROM THE GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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