182
FXAK67 PAJK 190534
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
834 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2025
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS THURSDAY EVENING THERE IS A TALE OF TWO
PATTERNS: ONE IS VFR COLD, DRY, AND WINDY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT, THE OTHER IS SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT WHERE -SHSN ARE
BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BROKEN DECK NEAR 2000 FT.
EXPECTING VFR TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN EXPANDS AND THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SNOW MOVES EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIMITED MVFR -SHSN TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR HYDABURG,
METLAKATLA, AND MISTY FJORDS, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
KETCHIKAN.
LARGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS AMPLIFYING
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE GASTINEAU
CHANNEL MOUNTAIN WAVE LOCALLY KNOWN AS A TAKU WIND REACHING MAX
INTENSITY NEAR SUNDAY FOR JUNEAU, INCREASING LLWS CONCERNS. WE
CONTINUE TO COORDINATE THE MESSAGE WITH THE ALASKA AVIATION
WEATHER UNIT; WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 349 PM THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, SOUTH
DOUGLAS ISLAND AND THANE DUE TO A ONGOING TAKU WIND EVENT
BRINGING GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH TONIGHT.
- NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COLDER.
SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY, WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST
INTO FRIDAY. WITH THAT, THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH TIMES OF SHOWERS STILL LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING.
OTHERWISE, OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES, CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT WINDS, THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AREAS THROUGH LYNN CANAL INTO ICY STRAIT CONTINUE
TO SEE WINDS UP TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS, NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 30 TO 35
KTS WILL STILL CREATE HARSH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, INCLUDING CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY. LAND AREAS WILL ALSO
SEE CONTINUED SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH
OR GREATER. THE STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE NEAR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY, AND OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU DUE TO A TAKU WIND MOUNTAIN WAVE
EVENT.
LOOKING MORE INTO THE TAKU WIND EVENT, STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW
COMBINED WITH A WEAK CRITICAL LEVEL, WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER TO REACH THE SURFACE. FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TONIGHT, STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO LIGHTEN INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
ANOTHER TAKU WIND EVENT IS LOOKING EVEN MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
WEEKEND, MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
BECAUSE OF THIS, MULTIPLE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE AREA. THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY IS ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO -40 BELOW STARTING TONIGHT. THE TOWN OF SKAGWAY
WILL NOT SEE AS COLD OF TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL STILL SEE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 BELOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAINES, JUNEAU, AND GUSTAVUS HAVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR
THEM AS WELL. AGAIN, THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN THE TOWN OF HAINES. ONE NOTE FOR JUNEAU IS THAT THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR EAGLE CREST AND AREAS THAT ARE BLOCKED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MEANS THAT DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WILL NOT SEE AS
COLD OF TEMPERATURES AS THE VALLEY DUE TO THE STRONG TAKU WIND, BUT
THEY WILL STILL BE VERY COLD.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND YUKON AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE. A PASSING
SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER HAIDA GWAII COULD BRING A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE, THE COLD, DRY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN -20C OR COLDER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALONG THE
NORTHERN HIGHWAYS, BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE LIKELY. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS FOR THE SOUTH. AGAIN,
THE NORTHERN HIGHWAY COULD BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS. WITH THE COLD TEMPS AND STRONGER WINDS, DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. A COLD TEMP ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JUNEAU,
GUSTAVUS AND HAINES ZONES, WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR FOR
SKAGWAY AND ESPECIALLY THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, WITH THE LOW BEING SITUATED TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE YUKON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH N/S CHANNELS. A
STRONGER GRADIENT ALSO SETS UP ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREA TO
THE NE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONGER WINDS COMING OUT
OF TAKU INLET AND THE MOUTH OF THE STIKINE RIVER WITH THE GRADIENT
REMAINING STRONG INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS STRONGER GRADIENT FOR
THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NE 925 MB WINDS, WHICH
WILL INCREASE FROM 30 TO 35 KT SATURDAY TO AROUND 45 KT BY SUNDAY.
THIS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONGSIDE WEAK 500 MB WINDS AS THE TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE PANHANDLE, CREATING A GOOD CRITICAL LEVEL FROM THIS NO
FLOW AREA JUST OVER JUNEAU. THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH THE
INVERSION AT 800-900 MB AT THE RIDGETOP CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONFIDENCE AT A TAKU WIND EVENT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED AT THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE OVERLAP OF THE STRONGEST CROSS
BARRIER FLOW AND THE CRITICAL LEVEL FORMATION, MAKES THE TIMING OF
THE TAKU EVENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUNDAY. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW STRENGTHENS BEFORE THE 500 MB WINDS PICK UP INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AT EXACTLY HOW
STRONG THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE AND HOW EARLY THE EVENT MAY START
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND LOW LONG SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEY WILL LAST AS THE CONDITIONS FOR A
CRITICAL LEVEL BEGIN TO FALL APART.
MARINE...OUTSIDE WATERS: OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, BRINGING
INCREASED GAP WINDS OFF THE NE GULF COAST AND STRONGER NE OUTFLOW
WINDS COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND INTO THE GULF WATERS. WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AS
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH LINGERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BEFORE PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS COMING
OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS TOMORROW EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AS
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. GAP WINDS COMING OFF THE
NE GULF COAST WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN AT A
GALE TO STRONG GALE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE JUST TO THE EAST OF
YAKUTAT DOWN TO CAPE SPENCER. 8 TO 14 FT SEAS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT BY TOMORROW EVENING, INCREASING AGAIN
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
INNER CHANNELS: OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH DOWN LYNN
CANAL, GLACIER BAY, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
DECREASE THE WIND SPEEDS COMING OUT OF THE NORTH TO A STRONG BREEZE
TO NEAR GALE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY
REMAINING THROUGH LYNN CANAL, AND THE ONLY AREA SEEING A LARGER
DECREASE IN THE WINDS TO A MODERATE BREEZE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT. A
STRONGER E-W GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR
GALES COMING OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER INTO SUMNER STRAIT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AS THE OUTFLOW
STRENGTHENS AGAIN, WITH A STRONG GALE BEING EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL
AND NEAR GALES TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE N-S AND NE-
SW ORIENTED CHANNELS FROM THIS STRONGER OUTFLOW. FULLY DEVELOPED
SEAS EXPECTED DOWN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE THIS WHOLE
OUTFLOW PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 14 TO 16 FT EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN LYNN TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 12 FT BEFORE THE
OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ319-320-325.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ325.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-032-053-643-644-651-663-664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>035-641-642-652-661-662-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAB
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