435
FXAK67 PAJK 220539
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
839 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2025
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION UPDATE
VFR PREVAILS. OUTFLOW WINDS, LLWS, AND ISOL SEV TURBULENCE FROM
MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS OF 06Z. EXPECTING THE
WORST OF THE LLWS CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST LLWS
AROUND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NEAR YAKUTAT ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST WITH CONTINUED NE 35 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 1500 TO 3000 FT.
OTHER AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE DOWN TO WRANGELL MAY STILL
SEE SOME 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FT, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 252 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS...
- WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD WIND CHILLS LAST THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY WORKWEEK.
- A TAKU WIND EVENT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS ISLAND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT BY LATE IN
THE WORKWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD OUTBREAK CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON RESULTING IN
COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS JOINED BY A MORE LOCALIZED
TAKU WIND EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AS A MOUNTAIN WAVE DESCENDS TO
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SO FAR, SO HAVE LOWERED THE MAX GUSTS TO
60 MPH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE OVERALL STORM TRACK HAS BEEN STEERED TO THE SOUTH AND
EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SEAK, A FEW
WEAK CIRCULATIONS OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS COULD PIVOT EASTWARDS
TOWARDS OR NEAR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR POW, ANNETTE ISLANDS, KETCHIKAN
AND HYDER, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...THIS WEEK, WE'LL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD WOULD THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY
WARMER TEMPS.
THE LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES,
ARE TRYING TO PUT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE
FLOW TO SWITCH TO A MORE ONSHORE PATTERN, OR AT THE VERY LEAST A
WEAKER OUTFLOW. THIS WOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA,
ALLOWING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO WEAKEN A BIT BEGINNING AROUND THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IF/WHEN THE LOW CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY
SOUTHEASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD TIGHTEN UP AGAIN,
ALLOWING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK BACK UP FOR THE LATER DAYS OF THE
WEEK.
AS FAR AS SNOW POTENTIAL, THE EURO AND CANADIAN DEVELOP A LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
MIRROR THIS STORY. THE OUTLIER IS THE GFS. THE LATEST GFS
DETERMINISTIC RUN KEEPS THE AREA DRY UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE, HOWEVER, CLOSER MATCHES THE EURO
AND CANADIAN.
FOR NOW, MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE HINTING AT IF THE PANHANDLE SEES ANY
SNOW LATER THIS WEEK, IT WOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
THE 75TH PERCENTILES FOR THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES GIVE THE
PANHANDLE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD GIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW AT MOST. FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE 75TH PERCENTILES ARE GIVING THE
AREA AROUND A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF, WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE EURO, WHICH WOULD GIVE AROUND 1 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER 24 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 75TH
PERCENTILES ARE GIVING THE AREA AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF,
WHICH WOULD GIVE UPWARDS OF 12+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER 24 HOURS. THE
50TH PERCENTILES ARE GIVING THE AREA AROUND A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH,
WHICH WOULD GIVE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SATURDAY'S QPF IS
EVEN GREATER WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES,
WHICH WOULD GIVE OVER 12 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS
OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH WOULD BE WELL OVER 15 INCHES OF SNOW. THE ISSUE
WITH SATURDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST IS WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY SLIDE IN,
WHICH WOULD LOWER TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME AREAS IN THE FAR
SOUTH MAY EVEN SEE RAIN MIXED IN.
SO WHAT ARE THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS OFF ALL THIS DATA? FOR STARTERS, THE
75TH PERCENTILE IS AN UPPER BOUND. SO THE AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE
ARE ON THE HIGH-END FOR CURRENT ESTIMATES. SECONDLY, SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY BUT MAJORITY OF THE DATA IS POINTING
TO IT NOT BEING MUCH MUCH IF IT DOES HAPPEN. THURSDAY COULD BE A
WILDCARD DAY THAT IS WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY. FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND
COULD BE A VERY SNOWY COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING
CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE JUMP IN 75TH PERCENTILES FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY.
AS FAR AS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE CONCERNED, THERE IS A
WARMING TREND BUT MOST OF SOUTHEAST IS STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW
FREEZING. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS BUT BY THE WEEKEND, HIGHS COULD BE IN THE TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTH, 20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, TUESDAY NIGHT'S
FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WARMER LOW
TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO 30S FOR THE WEEKEND NIGHTS. SO WARMER BUT
STILL COLDER-THAN-NORMAL.
AVIATION...OUTFLOW WINDS AND LLWS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DURING
THE OUTFLOW WITH MANY AREAS SEEING CLEAR SKIES. THE WINDS CONTINUE
TO BE STRONGEST IN AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS, WHILE
REMAINING LIGHTER IN AREAS PROTECTED BY THE OUTFLOW OR NOT AS
IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION WIND FLOW. CONTINUING TO SEE 15
TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KT IN AREAS SEEING STRONGER
OUTFLOW, WITH SKAGWAY REMAINING THE HIGHEST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND UP TO 40 KT
GUSTS. ASIDE FROM SKAGWAY CONTINUING TO SEE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS
LASTING INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE, DECREASING THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY INTO
TOMORROW. SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED 15 KT WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 25 KT INTO TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY AREAS WITH A STRONG
EASTERLY GRADIENT REMAINING AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO
THE NORTH / NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE.
LLWS SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS THE WINDS, WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE
STRONGEST LLWS AROUND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NEAR YAKUTAT ALONG
THE NE GULF COAST WITH THIS OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED NE 35 TO 40 KT
WINDS AT 1500 TO 3000 FT. OTHER AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
DOWN TO WRANGELL MAY STILL SEE SOME 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT 1500 TO
2000 FT ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, HOWEVER THIS WILL MAINLY BE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD CIGS NOT
IMPACTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF GAPS IN TERRAIN
SUCH AS CAPE SPENCER AND NEAR DANGEROUS RIVER. THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING
TO WEAKEN. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE
GULF BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREAS WHERE THE
OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH. THE N-NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN GOING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A S-W SWELL COMPONENT
BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GALES TO STRONG
GALES CONTINUING FOR LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS, WAVE HEIGHTS AND FREEZING SPRAY CONCERN
WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS WELL. UNTIL THEN, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWN LYNN CANAL AS WELL AS STEPHENS PASSAGE
AND DOWN TOWARDS FIVE FINGER LIGHTHOUSE. WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ317.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR
AKZ317.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318>322-325-
327.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ323-326-328-
330>332.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ324-329.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST TUESDAY
FOR AKZ324-329.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ022-034-644-651.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ033.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ035.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ643.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ671.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-032-053-642>644-651-663-664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-641-652-661-662-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...CONTINO
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