965
FXAK67 PAJK 241409
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
509 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES START A
WARMING TREND MID WEEK.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR SNOW EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE;
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW TURNING TO RAIN.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING WITH GALES OBSERVED IN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF TAKU INLET.
THIS IS STILL BRINGING AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY TO MANY OF THE
INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL AT
SKAGWAY AS WELL WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STRONG COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE YUKON BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT
MOST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL HAVE NEARLY SHUT OFF COMPLETELY HAVING
WEAKENED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN LYNN CANAL BY THAT POINT. AS A
RESULT THE AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
STILL BE AROUND THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS EVEN THEN WITH THE
COLD AIR STILL AROUND.
COLD AIR ALSO LINGERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
SEVERAL MARINE AREAS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS HAVE WARMED TO THE
TEENS AND 20S THIS MORNING DUE TO MIXING FROM WIND, BUT REALLY
COLD AIR IS POOLING IN VARIOUS VALLEYS OF THE NORTH INCLUDING THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY AND THE CHILKAT VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW ZERO IN BOTH PLACES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ONE MORE NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE SOME WIND SHELTERED
AREAS MAY REACH NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN
BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SPEAKING OF THE WEAK LOW, IT WILL START TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SPREADING MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BY THIS POINT. IT WILL SPREAD SOME
LIGHT SNOW (ACROSS THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTH), CLOUDS, AND FUEL A
RESURGENCE OF OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE UPCOMING SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY, FOLLOWING BEHIND THE WEAK LOW CLIPPING THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. AS THE WEAKER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST, BEFORE THE LARGER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHILE THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LOW
APPROACHES, AND A GALE FORCE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FROM W TO E INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURE RELATING TO SNOW POTENTIAL, THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT
OVER LOW TRACKS AND 500MB FLOW. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE OUTLIER.
THE 500 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE THE DEEP TROUGH FURTHER WEST,
KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ALLOWING FOR
DEEP MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO BE MOVED IN FROM LOWER LATITUDES
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH POSITION, WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH AND 500 MB
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTING OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA DOWN THE WEST GULF. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW THE ARCTIC TROUGH SEPARATING FROM THIS LOWER LATITUDE TROUGHING
AS IT BECOMES A CUTOFF AGAIN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD, LEAVING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT THE ARCTIC TROUGH
ALLOWING FOR COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING THE NORTH
MUCH SOONER THAN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS NOT
BEEN SHOWN ON THE ENSEMBLES AS OF YET, AND IS SEEN ON THE EC
DETERMINISTIC RUN AND NOT THE GFS ONE, SO THE CERTAINTY OF THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE PERIOD INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE EFI TABLES, AS WELL AS LOOKING AT AR AND IVT TOOLS
FOR THIS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION COMING UP THIS WEEKEND, QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVERY 24 HOURS, COMING DOWN FIRST
AS SNOW SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM
THE SW COASTLINE INWARDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH THE
SWITCH TO RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR POW AND SITKA
INTO MIDDAY FOR AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN AND WRANGELL THAT ARE A BIT
FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS FROM THE EXTREME AND AR TOOLS SHOWING A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SHIFT OF TAILS FOR QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE KETCHIKAN AREA, WITH AN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FROM YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS. OVERALL THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY, BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY THAT HAS BEEN PRIMED BY THE FIRST WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE DAY PRIOR. THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN
SOUTHERLY WARMER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH INCLUDES EVERYWHERE NORTH OF
WRANGELL AND SITKA, THE SNOW WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY AS THAT FIRST
FRONT MOVES IN, AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO HIGH 30S UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SWITCH TO MORE OF A MIX POTENTIALLY BECOMING RAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING UP TO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL
SEE BETWEEN 8 AND 14 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX TO POTENTIALLY RAIN. SNOW WILL
START OFF LIGHTER AND FLUFFIER SATURDAY AS SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN
HIGH, BUT AS THE AREA WARMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RATIOS WILL
DECREASE TO BECOME A HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH BOTH
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH, GIVING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TO
THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS WITH BETWEEN 10 AND 18 INCHES IN 24
HOURS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MORE EXPECTED ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY. HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLE DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHES PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS. OVERALL THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE EXACTLY DURING THIS SYSTEM AND THE
EXACT TIMING OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS WILL REMAIN MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM SITKA AND WRANGELL SOUTHWARDS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED FOR KETCHIKAN
SITKA AND POW SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN, AND 6
TO 12 INCHES FOR WRANGELL POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY TOO TRANSITION TO
RAIN.
AVIATION.../12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WHERE HIGH-END MVFR IS POSSIBLE IS IN FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
VIS/CIGS.
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT AROUND 25-35KTS FOR THE GUSTAVUS AND
JUNEAU AREAS, IN SOUTHERN SE AK, AND IN AREAS PRONE TO GAP WINDS.
LLWS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS 25G50KT CONTINUE FOR PAGY WITH BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS 10-
15G20-25KT FOR PAHN, PAWG AND PAKW. LESS THAN 10KT ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WITH FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTH. LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET ARE STILL SHOWING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WHILE 25 KT WINDS EXTEND DOWN TO
FREDERICK SOUND AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OUTFLOW
NEARLY SHUTTING OFF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO
20 KT IN LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET) AS THE YUKON HIGH WEAKENS.
THIS LOW PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVING SE
ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN THE OUTFLOW AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALES AGAIN IN LYNN AND TAKU INLET BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS STILL ONGOING, BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST MARINE AREAS, THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN LYNN FOR THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH
AS THE OUTFLOW WIND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH IN LYNN AND STEPHENS PASSAGE THIS MORNING
(REACHING 13 FT IN SOME AREAS) BUT THOSE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DO BY EARLY THURSDAY.
GULF WATERS: THE GULF WATERS WILL BE SEEING A CHANGE FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY AS A WEAK LOW
MOVES SE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND THEN SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. HIGHEST SEAS ARE STILL
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OUTFLOW THAT MAKES
IT INTO THE GULF OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND CHATHAM STRAIT WITH UP TO
10 FT SEAS. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DO DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN START BUILDING AGAIN TO 8 TO
12 FT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED W WINDS AT THAT
TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ319.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ320-
321-323-326-327-329.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ325.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ328-
330-332.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>034-036-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAL
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