709
FXAK67 PAJK 251846
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2025
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
OUTSIDE COAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
- THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP WITH THE NEXT INCOMING LOW BRINGING AN END
TO THE LOW TEENS AND NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ NORTHERLY OUTFLOW HAS
WEAKENED ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING (EXCEPTIONS ARE
TAKU INLET AND SKAGWAY WITH BOTH SEEING GUSTS TO 40 KT), BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ARE DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW VALLEYS STILL SEEING
BELOW ZERO TEMPS. SIGNS OF CHANGE ARE COMING THOUGH. A WEAK
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CENTER IS AROUND 150 MILES S OF YAKUTAT AS OF 5
AM, AND IS ALREADY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE YAKUTAT AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HERALD OF THE CHANGES TO COME. WHILE NOT
VERY STRONG IT WILL HAVE A FEW IMPACTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.
FIRST IS THAT IT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONTRAST WITH THE WEAKENING
YUKON HIGH THAT OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING AGAIN FRIDAY. GALES ARE LIKELY DOWN LYNN CANAL AND OUT
OF TAKU INLET, AND CROSS SOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREEZING
SPRAY BECOMING A WIDE SPREAD PROBLEM AGAIN.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE LIGHT SNOW THAT IT WILL BRING TO THE OUTER
COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER TODAY EVEN FROM THE LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT THIS LOW HAS. IT APPEARS THAT AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN BARANOF, KUIU, AND INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE FROM
AROUND SOUTHERN BARANOF AND SOUTHERN KUIU ISLANDS SOUTH TO THE
SPINE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE AS COLD
AS IT IS SNOW RATIOS COULD BE AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER, GIVING A
TOTAL AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORT ALEXANDER AND PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THIS
EVENING. AREAS FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESSER
AMOUNTS OR NO SNOW AT ALL, MOSTLY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW THAT WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY THE FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH YOU
GO.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO HAIDA GWAII BY LATE TONIGHT
TAKING ITS PRECIP WITH IT AND ALLOWING THE OUTFLOW TO WEAKEN AGAIN.
THEN THE WAY IS CLEAR FOR THE MAJOR SYSTEM COMING FOR THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS DISCUSSED BELOW.
LONG TERM
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE UPCOMING SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT WOULD GIVE THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY, FOLLOWING BEHIND THE WEAK LOW CLIPPING THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. AS THE WEAKER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST, BEFORE THE LARGER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHILE THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER LOW
APPROACHES, AND A GALE FORCE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALONGSIDE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FROM W TO E INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURE RELATING TO SNOW POTENTIAL, THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT
OVER LOW TRACKS AND 500MB FLOW. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE OUTLIER.
THE 500 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE THE DEEP TROUGH FURTHER WEST,
KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ALLOWING FOR
DEEP MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO BE MOVED IN FROM LOWER LATITUDES
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH POSITION, WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH AND 500 MB
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTING OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA DOWN THE WEST GULF. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW THE ARCTIC TROUGH SEPARATING FROM THIS LOWER LATITUDE TROUGHING
AS IT BECOMES A CUTOFF AGAIN AND MOVES SOUTHWARD, LEAVING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT THE ARCTIC TROUGH
ALLOWING FOR COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING THE NORTH
MUCH SOONER THAN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS NOT
BEEN SHOWN ON THE ENSEMBLES AS OF YET, AND IS SEEN ON THE EC
DETERMINISTIC RUN AND NOT THE GFS ONE, SO THE CERTAINTY OF THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE PERIOD INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE EFI TABLES, AS WELL AS LOOKING AT AR AND IVT TOOLS
FOR THIS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION COMING UP THIS WEEKEND, QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVERY 24 HOURS, COMING DOWN FIRST
AS SNOW SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM
THE SW COASTLINE INWARDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH THE
SWITCH TO RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR POW AND SITKA
INTO MIDDAY FOR AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN AND WRANGELL THAT ARE A BIT
FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS FROM THE EXTREME AND AR TOOLS SHOWING A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SHIFT OF TAILS FOR QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE KETCHIKAN AREA, WITH AN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FROM YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS. OVERALL THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY, BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY THAT HAS BEEN PRIMED BY THE FIRST WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE DAY PRIOR. THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN
SOUTHERLY WARMER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH INCLUDES EVERYWHERE NORTH OF
WRANGELL AND SITKA, THE SNOW WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY AS THAT FIRST
FRONT MOVES IN, AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO HIGH 30S UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SWITCH TO MORE OF A MIX POTENTIALLY BECOMING RAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING UP TO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL
SEE BETWEEN 8 AND 14 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX TO POTENTIALLY RAIN. SNOW WILL
START OFF LIGHTER AND FLUFFIER SATURDAY AS SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN
HIGH, BUT AS THE AREA WARMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RATIOS WILL
DECREASE TO BECOME A HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH BOTH
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH, GIVING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TO
THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS WITH BETWEEN 10 AND 18 INCHES IN 24
HOURS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MORE EXPECTED ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY. HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLE DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHES PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS. OVERALL THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE EXACTLY DURING THIS SYSTEM AND THE
EXACT TIMING OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS WILL REMAIN MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM SITKA AND WRANGELL SOUTHWARDS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED FOR KETCHIKAN
SITKA AND POW SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN, AND 6
TO 12 INCHES FOR WRANGELL POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY TOO TRANSITION TO
RAIN.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY/
MOST TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY
STICK TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE, ESPECIALLY, THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
& EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS TAF SITES LIKE PASI, PAKW, &
PAKT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO WELL WITHIN THE MVFR CATEGORY
& TEMPORARILY DOWN TO IFR AT THE LOWEST UNDER MORE INTENSE BANDS
OF SNOW SHOWERS. IF OTHER AREAS GET QUICK LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE CLIPPER, THEY MAY DIP THEM INTO HIGH-END MVFR CATEGORY
TEMPORARILY. IT WILL STAY QUITE BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR THE LYNN CANAL TAF SITES(PAGY & PAHN) THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THAT LOW PASSES BY, IT BRINGS LLWS MAGNITUDES UP TO
AROUND 20 KT CENTERED AT AROUND 1 KFT FOR THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST,
ESPECIALLY AROUND PASI.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED AREAS, THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE INSIDE WATERS OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS DIMINISHED WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING 15 KT OR LESS
OF WIND THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE TAKU INLET AND TAIYA
INLET WHERE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES. THIS
REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY WILL REVIVE THE OUTFLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GALES EXPECTED DOWN LYNN CANAL, AND OUT OF TAKU INLET AND CROSS
SOUND BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SOUTHWARD. AS THE WINDS RETURN, FREEZING SPRAY WILL AGAIN BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
ALSO RETURNING TO LYNN CANAL TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN POSSIBLY REACHING 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH SOUTHERN
LYNN, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NORTHERN CHATHAM BY THIS EVENING AS
THE STRONG OUTFLOW BLOWS DOWN THE LONG LINEAR FETCH OF LYNN CANAL
AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. BOTH SEAS AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL AGAIN
SUBSIDE AND DIMINISH AS THE WINDS DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY.
GULF WATERS: WEAK LOW 150 MILES S OF YAKUTAT AND WHERE IT GOES IS
THE DRIVER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CENTRAL GULF
WINDS HAVE LARGELY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AT LEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT AND OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. EXPECT THESE WIND CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS SE. WINDS WILL THEN
SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY AND START INCREASING AGAIN TO GALE FORCE BY
LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVES IN. SEAS ARE LOW
AT AROUND 3 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING, BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO LAST.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OUTFLOW AREAS TO 9 TO 11 FT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CENTRAL GULF WILL ALSO SEE BUILDING SEAS TO
SIMILAR HEIGHTS, BUT IT WILL BE FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
THERE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 FT ON FRIDAY
BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO MOVE IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317>322-325-331.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ323-324-326>330-332.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ033.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-033-641>644-651-652-661-663-
664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032-034>036-053-662-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL
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