135
FXAK67 PAJK 171833 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
933 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANT ACROSS MOST OF SE AK,
AND LOOK SET TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. WHILE
IFR CONDITIONS LINGER NEAR YAKUTAT - WHERE A DECAYING SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN GULF IS PRODUCING LOWER CIGS, AND IN GUSTAVUS - WHERE
FOG HAS RESULTED IN LIFR CIGS AND VIS, BOTH OF THESE ARES WILL SEE
AN IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SOME LOCATIONS -ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WILL GO BACK DOWN TO IFR AS PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OCCURS, THOUGH THIS FOG WILL LIKEWISE DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST PLACES, SAVE FOR
HAINES WHERE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUIET
WEATHER, VFR CONDITIONS (SAVE FOR FOG), AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG IN ISOLATED
AREAS (MAINLY YAKUTAT, ANGOON, AND PETERSBURG SO FAR). SOME HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE FRONT IN THE GULF IS STREAMING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE SOUTH IS MOSTLY
CLEAR RIGHT NOW.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON SPREADS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
GULF. ALOFT, A RIDGE SPREADING IN FROM THE SE IS REINFORCING THIS
QUIET TREND BY DEFLECTING ALL THE STORM TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE ONLY MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH FOG ARE VARIOUS AREAS
GOING TO RECEIVE DUE TO THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND THE LOW WIND
CONDITIONS. NOT MUCH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT AS SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT A BIT MORE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH CONTINUED
QUIET WEATHER AND DECREASING FOG CHANCES. A STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY
FROM THE PANHANDLE. WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL HELP KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL STILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS, AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
A GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WITH PEAK SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST REPORTED BY BUOY
82 EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
DROPPING BELOW 10FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING DEEP WATER
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE START
OF NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL GENERATED FROM STORMS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IMPACTING OUR
COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY ARE SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FOR
LYNN CANAL, DIMINISHING TO BELOW 15 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR ALL MAJOR PASSAGES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MAIN THREAT FOR FOLKS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES BECOME LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page