234
FXAK67 PAJK 172342
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
242 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
SOME LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR YAKUTAT DUE TO A CONTINUED FRONT PUSHING INLAND OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, INTO SUNDAY, AS THAT SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHERWISE, THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE DRIER WEATHER WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE SURFACE. THIS QUIET WEATHER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR QUITE A WHILE. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AREAS OF FOG, DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM, DEVELOPING ACROSS VARIOUS AREAS OF SE AK. WE ARE
SEEING AREAS OF FOG AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE
OBSERVED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT THIS FOG TO CONTINUE WITH MORE DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH
SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE
FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS
HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE BY THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
THE PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONE BIG EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND PARTS OF THE
INNER CHANNELS, AND COULD LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. AREAS WITH FOG WILL SEE CIGS AND VIS DROP TO IFR AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR AT TIME. SITES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF FOG THAN AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER WINDS WITH LOW SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW AREAS ARE SEEING EAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY IS WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. AREAS WITH STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO JOIN THE REST OF THE AREA WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
VARIOUS AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THESE WEAKER WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY THIS FOG IS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHANNELS, BUT IS LIKELY TO SPREAD TO MORE
AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LATER, AROUND MID WEEK, WEAK OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY
EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS THESE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS GET CLOSER.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8
TO 10 FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER DIMINISHING, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 10
KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 FT. THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ320.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAB
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