581
FXAK67 PAJK 180528
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
828 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE, AS WELL AS TO MENTION
THE RECENT ISSUANCE OF MULTIPLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
SOME LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR YAKUTAT DUE TO A CONTINUED FRONT PUSHING INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT, INTO SUNDAY, AS THAT SYSTEM WEAKENS.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE DRIER
WEATHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
SURFACE. THIS QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR
QUITE A WHILE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AREAS OF FOG,
DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 SM, DEVELOPING
ACROSS VARIOUS AREAS OF SE AK. WE ARE SEEING AREAS OF FOG AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE OBSERVED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS FOG TO
CONTINUE WITH MORE DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH
SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE
FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS
HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE BY THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT. THIS FOG IS
VERY DENSE AND LOW TO THE GROUND IN AREAS, REDUCING CONDITIONS TO
LIFR OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE SUN RISES, THOUGH PLACES SUCH AS YAKUTAT MAY LIFT EARLIER
THAN PLACES SUCH AS PETERSBURG DUE TO WIND INFLUENCE AND A THIN
LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER WINDS WITH LOW SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW AREAS ARE SEEING EAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY IS WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. AREAS WITH STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO JOIN THE REST OF THE AREA WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
VARIOUS AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THESE WEAKER WINDS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY THIS FOG IS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHANNELS, BUT IS LIKELY TO SPREAD TO MORE
AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LATER, AROUND MID WEEK, WEAK OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY
EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS THESE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS GET CLOSER.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8
TO 10 FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER DIMINISHING, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 10
KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 FT. THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ317-320-321-
324>327-329.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ643-644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page