617
FXAK67 PAJK 181432
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
532 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ RATHER QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD
AND LIGHTER WINDS. AS A RESULT FOG HAS BECOME A PROMINENT FEATURE
IN THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW
A HALF MILE AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR MANY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS UNTIL 10
AM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERALL. EXPECT THE CURRENT FOG TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL WITHIN A MONTH OF THE WINTER
SOLSTICE, THE SUN ANGLE IS STILL RATHER LOW SO FOG MAY STICK
AROUND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE DAY (THOUGH MAY NOT LOWER
VISIBILITY AS MUCH). WITH THE CONTINUED LOW WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT THE FOG TO RETURN/PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MANY
INNER CHANNEL AREAS.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL
DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE
RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS.
WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE,
LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE BY THE END
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG WITH CONDITIONS DOWN TO VIS 1/4SM HAVE
LASTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS. THIS
HOWEVER SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SUN
RISES, EARLIER FOR THE MORE OUTER COASTLINE AREAS AND LASTING
LONGER INTO THE MORNING FOR AREAS LIKE PETERSBURG AND JUNEAU AS
SOME BROKEN FOG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST TO
AROUND 18Z. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
TONIGHT FROM AROUND 04Z ONWARDS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN, LARGELY IN THE SAME PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE AS
LAST EVENING, DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL SEEING FOG PERSISTING AGAIN INTO
THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LOW WINDS AND BANKS OF FOG ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR THE INNER CHANNELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN
MOST AREAS REMAIN LESS THEN 15 KT AND MOSTLY NORTHERLY OR
EASTERLY WITH THOSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY
DOWN BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME
COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH HIGHER
SEAS UP TO 7 FT WILL BE FOUND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH A
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS S SWELL IN THE GULF
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
LATER, AROUND MID WEEK, WEAK OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY
EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS THESE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS GET CLOSER.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):LARGELY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
GULF AS WELL. HIGHEST WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF UP TO CAPE SUCKLING THIS MORNING. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS HAVE SHOWN A
SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS CURRENTLY SITTING AT
AROUND 7 FT MAINLY DUE TO S SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SEC.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SUBSIDING TREND DOWN TO 5 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT WITH THOSE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK
THOUGH THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM A SOUTH DIRECTION TO A
MORE W TO SW DIRECTION BY MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320-321-
324>327-329.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAL
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