089
FXAK67 PAJK 181739
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
839 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 532 AM AKST SUN JAN 18
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ RATHER QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD
AND LIGHTER WINDS. AS A RESULT FOG HAS BECOME A PROMINENT FEATURE
IN THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW
A HALF MILE AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR MANY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS UNTIL 10
AM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERALL. EXPECT THE CURRENT FOG TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STILL WITHIN A MONTH OF THE WINTER
SOLSTICE, THE SUN ANGLE IS STILL RATHER LOW SO FOG MAY STICK
AROUND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE DAY (THOUGH MAY NOT LOWER
VISIBILITY AS MUCH). WITH THE CONTINUED LOW WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT THE FOG TO RETURN/PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MANY
INNER CHANNEL AREAS.
LONG TERM...CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH
SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE
FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS
HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE BY THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS BUT FAA WEBCAMS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENTS FOR CERTAIN LOCATIONS LIKE WRANGELL WHILE THE FOG
REMAINS VERY MUCH ENTRENCHED ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT CLEARING OVER THE GULF HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PLACES TO FROST OUT LIKE YAKUTAT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FOG BREAKS TODAY ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
AND WILL REMAIN GOING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE IF THE FOG REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING DUE TO AN UNCHANGED
AIRMASS. IF THIS FOG REMAINS IN PLACE OR REDEVELOPS, LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER.
MARINE... INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LOW WINDS AND
BANKS OF FOG ARE THE MAIN FORECAST FOR THE INNER CHANNELS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN LESS THEN 15 KT AND
MOSTLY NORTHERLY OR EASTERLY WITH THOSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEAS ARE MOSTLY
2 FT OR LESS THROUGH HIGHER SEAS UP TO 7 FT WILL BE FOUND NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH A SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
S SWELL IN THE GULF GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
LATER, AROUND MID WEEK, WEAK OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY
EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
(17 TO 27 KTS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS THESE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS GET CLOSER.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):LARGELY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
GULF AS WELL. HIGHEST WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF UP TO CAPE SUCKLING THIS MORNING. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS HAVE SHOWN A
SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS CURRENTLY SITTING AT
AROUND 7 FT MAINLY DUE TO S SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SEC.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SUBSIDING TREND DOWN TO 5 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT WITH THOSE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK
THOUGH THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM A SOUTH DIRECTION TO A
MORE W TO SW DIRECTION BY MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320-321-
324>327-329.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
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