427
FXAK67 PAJK 190050
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SE AK. THE ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION BEING THE FOG WHICH HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 5C AND 9C, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY EVEN FURTHER, BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS OFFER A
POTENTIAL RESPITE IN VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL DIVERT
WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UNTIL THESE WINDS PICK UP, LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A HINDRANCE TO MARINERS AND AIR TRAVEL THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS HELPING HOLD THIS
RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. FORECAST PATTERN
STILL NO TRACK FOR A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE PATCHY FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BUT IS MORE LIMITED IN EXTENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY BEING
REPORTED. THE FOG FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD IS NOT AS LIKELY. CURRENT THINKING FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS THAT THE FOG WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE INCREASING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE FOG
TO MIX OUT ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER WINDS WITH LOW SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY, BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL, POTENTIALLY REACHING UPWARDS OF STRONG BREEZE FOR AREAS N
OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 8 TO
10 FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ320-321-324>327-
329.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS
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