436
FXAK67 PAJK 190557
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
857 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SE AK. THE ONE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING THE FOG WHICH HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 5C AND 9C, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY EVEN FURTHER, BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS OFFER A
POTENTIAL RESPITE IN VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL DIVERT
WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UNTIL THESE WINDS PICK UP, LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A HINDRANCE TO MARINERS AND AIR TRAVEL THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS HELPING HOLD THIS
RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. FORECAST PATTERN
STILL NO TRACK FOR A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
PANHANDLE, KEEPING A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES AT LIFR. YAKUTAT HAS
HAD A FEW INSTANCES WHERE A LOW LAYER TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEY ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG AT VFR. A MARINE
LAYER KEEPS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INLAND, WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT LOWER CEILINGS. CURRENTLY THINKING THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD THIS BACK, THOUGH A LIGHT LOW CLOUD LAYER
MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IF WINDS WEAKEN
ENOUGH. HAINES AND SKAGWAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS PICKING UP MIDDAY. SITKA ALSO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MANAGED TO STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AS A LOW LAYER OF FOG
TRIES TO MOVE IN AND BRING DOWN VISIBILITY. THIS FOG IS FORECAST
TO ONLY BE PATCHY AND LIGHT, SO NOT AS DENSE AS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE.
THE DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING LIFR CONDITIONS. OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
OUT IN SKAGWAY AND HAINES. THE INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO MIX OUT
AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER WINDS WITH LOW SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY, BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL, POTENTIALLY REACHING UPWARDS OF STRONG BREEZE FOR AREAS N
OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10
FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ320-321-324>327-
329.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page