061
FXAK67 PAJK 190604
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU
AK 857 PM AKST SUN JAN 18 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG, MOST
LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SE AK. THE ONE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING THE FOG WHICH HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 5C AND 9C, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY EVEN FURTHER, BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS OFFER A
POTENTIAL RESPITE IN VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE
WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UNTIL THESE WINDS PICK UP, LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A HINDRANCE TO MARINERS AND AIR TRAVEL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION.
WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE,
LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. FORECAST PATTERN STILL NO TRACK FOR A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
PANHANDLE, KEEPING A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES AT LIFR. YAKUTAT HAS HAD
A FEW INSTANCES WHERE A LOW LAYER TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEY ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG AT VFR. A MARINE LAYER KEEPS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INLAND, WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BUT LOWER
CEILINGS. CURRENTLY THINKING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD THIS
BACK, THOUGH A LIGHT LOW CLOUD LAYER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IF WINDS WEAKEN ENOUGH. HAINES AND SKAGWAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS
PICKING UP MIDDAY. SITKA ALSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MANAGED TO STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AS A LOW
LAYER OF FOG TRIES TO MOVE IN AND BRING DOWN VISIBILITY. THIS FOG IS
FORECAST TO ONLY BE PATCHY AND LIGHT, SO NOT AS DENSE AS THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE.
THE DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED ENOUGH BELOW FREEZING THAT CONDITIONS MAY TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS OUT IN SKAGWAY AND HAINES. THE INCREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FOG TO MIX OUT AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER WINDS WITH LOW SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY,
BEFORE WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL,
POTENTIALLY REACHING UPWARDS OF STRONG BREEZE FOR AREAS N OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10
FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN AROUND THE NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ320-321-
324>327- 329.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS
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