624
FXAK67 PAJK 191359
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE. EXPECTING AN
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS WHICH MAY HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE
FOG/STRATUS, BUT KEEP PATCHY FOG STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM AND HIRES MODEL ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND ELEVATED WITH GUSTS
25 TO 35 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CROSS-BARRIER FLOW
INCREASES. IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/STRATUS YESTERDAY ONLY REACHED
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS SOME SEMBLANCE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY, LIMITING HEATING.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
DOWN THROUGH SE AK WILL DIVERT WOULD-BE WEATHER MAKERS WELL AWAY
FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK
LIKE FEATURE TO THE WEST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS
HELPING HOLD THIS RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK TO BE SLOWLY ERODED AWAY BY
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE BY THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LAST INTO THE
MORNING, KEEPING VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM AND CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE OVER THE AREA, WITH THE PRIOR FOG BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE PATCHY, WITH CONDITIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN VIS
OF 5 TO 6SM DOWN TO 1 TO 2SM IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO FOR GUSTAVUS
AND JUNEAU. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG FROM CONTINUING
AS LONG INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BRING
VFR CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO LIFR AROUND THE AIRPORT AREAS FROM NOW
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATER
MORNING, HOWEVER BY MIDDAY AFTER THE SUN RISES IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR UP. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE AREA, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS INTO
THE MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP.
THIS WILL HELP ALLOW FOR THE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR TONIGHT,
WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DOWN TO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SEEING
LESS LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE CLEARER SKIES
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR AROUND 3Z INTO THE
LATER HOURS OF THE NIGHT IF THESE CONDITIONS STAY FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER EASTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, WHERE A
BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BRING STRONG WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH VARIOUS AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THESE WEAKER
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
THE EASTERLY/NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KTS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS THESE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS GET CLOSER.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS TO INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH NORTH INTO THE GULF
WATERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ320-321-324>330-
332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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