335
FXAK67 PAJK 200002
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2026
SHORT TERM
SOMEWHAT BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SE AK WITH
CONTINUED FOG CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT, WE HAVE A RIDGE UPSTREAM WITH
A TROUGH MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE IS A SOMEWHAT
STABLE HIGH PRESSURE IN YUKON WITH GRADUALLY DROPPING PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, INCREASING THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TONIGHT,
DENSITY DIFFERENCES WILL DRIVE KATABATIC DRY WINDS, MIXING THE
FOG OUT NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECTING SOME RECOVERY IN THE YUKON
TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT,
BUT STILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED IN SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
MID RANGE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT; AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK LARGE SYSTEMS
FROM MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH A COOL ARCTIC AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE YUKON AND B.C TERRITORIES DRIVING OUTFLOW FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS. MAGNITUDE OF OUTFLOW WINDS LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW
GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE TAKU INLET AND PERHAPS TAIYA. BY
THE WEEKEND A PROMINENT SYSTEM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF WILL PUSH
SOME MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
INCREASING WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY/
DENSE FG REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL AREAS FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, SOUTHWARD, KEEPING
CIG & VIS CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY, INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION IN THAT AREA WILL BE THE CENTRAL
OUTER COAST, INCLUDING PASI, WHICH WILL STAY VFR & PAJN, PAWG, &
PAKW WHICH WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND MVFR ON AVERAGE INTO THE
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE, LIKE PAYA, PAGY, & PAHN
WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FG HAS A CHANCE OF
BUILDING BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS
EXCEPT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE & CENTRAL OUTER COAST & ARE
NOTED IN THOSE TAFS WITH PROB30 GROUPS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
FROM NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
/ NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA, INCLUDING THE PAGY & PAHN TAF SITES,
THROUGH THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. LLWS VALUES REMAIN RATHER BENIGN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WSW SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT AT 12 TO 14 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE COAST WITH WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. OUTFLOW WINDS
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES COMING OUT OF
CROSS SOUND BY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE LOW LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE. ONE BENEFIT
OF OUTFLOW WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
PROTECTED BAYS AND INLETS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ320-324-
326>328-330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...AP
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