971
FXAK67 PAJK 200816 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1116 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2026
EVENING, AVIATION, AND LONG TERM UPDATE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING INCLUDE DROPPING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE OVER GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES
AND ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, AND HOONAH AREAS,
HOWEVER THAT HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH JUNEAU STILL SEEING AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE GENERAL
VICINITY. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SITKA WITH MARINE LAYER
WORKING IT'S WAY INLAND, WITH TRAINS WEATHER SPOTTERS IN SITKA
REPORTING LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND SOME
SLIPPERY SURFACES. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOG FOR JUNEAU WITH SHALLOW FOG
REPORTED AROUND THE JUNEAU AIRPORT. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES, BUT DRY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
CHANNELING DOWN TAKU INLET AND LYNN CANAL CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS DECREASING. HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
FREEZING FOG COULD REDEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
UPDATES TO THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST ARE BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
SOMEWHAT BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SE AK WITH
CONTINUED FOG CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT, WE HAVE A RIDGE UPSTREAM WITH
A TROUGH MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE IS A SOMEWHAT
STABLE HIGH PRESSURE IN YUKON WITH GRADUALLY DROPPING PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, INCREASING THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TONIGHT,
DENSITY DIFFERENCES WILL DRIVE KATABATIC DRY WINDS, MIXING THE
FOG OUT NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECTING SOME RECOVERY IN THE YUKON
TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT,
BUT STILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED IN SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
MID RANGE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT; AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH THE AXIS
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOCK LARGE SYSTEMS FROM MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH A
COOL ARCTIC AIRMASS DOMINATING THE YUKON AND B.C. TERRITORIES
DRIVING OUTFLOW FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. MAGNITUDE OF OUTFLOW WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE TAKU INLET
AND PERHAPS TAIYA. BY THE WEEKEND, A PROMINENT SYSTEM IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE COAST.
THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, OVERALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURFACE INFLECTION
LOOKS TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, WITH STRONG GUSTS PUSHING UP INTO THE CHANNELS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MORE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, AS OUTFLOW DURING THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD WILL BE COMBATING THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL,
NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THIS
PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD LOW FOLLOWING
BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE
COMMUNITIES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 35KTS. FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER SKC FOR
JUNEAU, HOWEVER INTERMITTENT FOG HAS BEEN REDUCING CIGS AND VISBYS
DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR AT TIMES. FOR TAF SITES SITKA EASTWARD TO
KAKE AND PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD, GENERAL LIFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FG OR FZFG REDUCING VISBYS DOWN
TO 1/2 SM OR LESS AND/OR CEILINGS AOB 300FT. MOVING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN FG ACROSS THE N
PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTAVUS CLEARING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
JUNEAU SEEMINGLY FOLLOWING SUIT. HOWEVER, KEEPING AN EYE ON AN
AREA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG MOVING NORTHWARD UP STEPHENS PASSAGE, SO
CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF RESURGENCE OF FG OVERNIGHT FOR JUNEAU WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/4SM BEFORE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BY 00Z, ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS OUTFLOW WINDS TAKE HOLD.
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, OUTSIDE OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WILL
BE AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. MAIN WIND CONCERN WILL BE SKAGWAY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
40KTS LIKELY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
NOTICING JAWS HIGHLIGHTING NE-LY WINDS AROUND 3KFT NEAR 20 TO
30 KTS, EXPECTING THESE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WSW SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT AT 12 TO 14 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE COAST WITH WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. OUTFLOW WINDS
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES COMING OUT OF
CROSS SOUND BY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE LOW LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE. ONE BENEFIT
OF OUTFLOW WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
PROTECTED BAYS AND INLETS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ320-321-
324>327.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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