424
FXAK67 PAJK 201432
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
532 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO BE THE PRESENCE OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. DRIER, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
ACROSS HAVE DISSIPATED MOST OF THE FOG NEAR JUNEAU AND THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, WITH THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY BEING CANCELLED
FOR THESE AREAS. AS YOU HEAD SOUTH, FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN,
BUT ON A LESSER SCALE THEN THE PREVIOUS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOG/STRATUS IS CURRENTLY THICKEST ACROSS
FREDERICK SOUND AND INTO KAKE AND PETERSBURG. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
WILL SLOWLY FUNNEL IN DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN, WITH
FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN, ON A LESSER SCALE THAN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR HAINES AND ESPECIALLY SKAGWAY AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THIS MORNING AS
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO LIMITED MIXING.
LONG TERM
MID RANGE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT; AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH THE AXIS
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOCK LARGE SYSTEMS FROM MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST, WITH A
COOL ARCTIC AIRMASS DOMINATING THE YUKON AND B.C. TERRITORIES
DRIVING OUTFLOW FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. MAGNITUDE OF OUTFLOW WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE TAKU INLET
AND PERHAPS TAIYA. BY THE WEEKEND, A PROMINENT SYSTEM IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE COAST.
THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, OVERALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURFACE INFLECTION
LOOKS TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, WITH STRONG GUSTS PUSHING UP INTO THE CHANNELS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MORE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, AS OUTFLOW DURING THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD WILL BE COMBATING THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL,
NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THIS
PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD LOW FOLLOWING
BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS
MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS WELL
AS LOW STRATUS DECKS BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO AOB 300 FT FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AROUND ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, THOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS BRINGING
CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR AROUND THE JUNEAU AREA, HOWEVER
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP INTO THE MID MORNING. THE FOG HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL AS WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP. SOME BROKEN FOG AND LOWERED VIS AND CIGS
REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING FOR PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, KETCHIKAN,
AND PARTS OF POW, HOWEVER MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN
IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR UP TO
VFR THIS MORNING. PETERSBURG IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOCKED IN FOR A
BIT LONGER, BUT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS FROM LIFR AND
1/4SM FREEZING FOG UP TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE FLYING CONDITIONS
DEGRADE AGAIN TONIGHT, LARGELY AREAS PROTECTED BY THE OFFSHORE
FLOW AND THE DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM N TO S TODAY, AS CLEAR
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE WILL STAY VFR ONCE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 20
KTS AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT POSSIBLE, AS OUTFLOW
WINDS CONTINUE. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE AND NO LLWS EXPECTED. SOME 925MB CROSS
BARRIER FLOW OF 30 KT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GASTINEAU CHANNEL AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO NE-LY OUTFLOW, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 3000 FT, WHILE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SEE CALMER WINDS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING LYNN
CANAL AND TAKU INLET, WHICH COULD SEE MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING, BUT LOOKS DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR- GALE FORCE. ONE BENEFIT OF
OUTFLOW WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
PROTECTED BAYS AND INLETS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS TO INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH NORTH INTO THE GULF
WATERS. OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO LOOK BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND BY FRIDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ321-326-327.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ328-330.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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