241
FXAK67 PAJK 210046
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS FOG IS MAINLY AFFECTING ISOLATED AND
PROTECTED AREAS AROUND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED
TO THIN OUT AT TIMES THIS EVENING, BUT THEN BECOME DENSE AGAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS LIKE PETERSBURG, KAKE, GUSTAVUS, AND AREAS ACROSS
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. ALONG WITH THIS FOG, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING FOG TO FORM. PLACES THAT HAVE HAD CONTINUED
FOG ALL DAY, LIKE PETERSBURG, HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THEIR
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY, WITH MINIMAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. WITH THE CONTINUED FOG, THESE AREAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AREAS THAT ARE
CLEAR, AND REMAIN CLEAR, WILL HAVE A LARGER CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE AS
THEY FALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS SE AK TO DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF
THIS FOG AND AREAS OF CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURE WAS THE MAIN
FORECAST CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WINDS AS OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER TAIYA INLET INTO SKAGWAY WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE SOUTHEAST’S WEATHER, BLOCKING MAJOR STORMS FROM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MAIN THREAT REMAINS IN
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF AND OUR CANADIAN
NEIGHBORS. GIVEN THE NE TO SW PRESSURE GRADIENT, THINKING TAIYA
AND TAKU INLET SEE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH
STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALES FOR LYNN CANAL. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL HELP COOL ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THIS
WEEKEND; MAINLY FOR COMMUNITIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY/
A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WIND
PATTERN IS IN PLACE, WHICH IS BRINGING BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/LYNN
CANAL REGION SITES, INCLUDING PAGY & PAHN. WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS MUCH MORE RELAXED. AS FAR AS CIGS AND VISS ARE
CONCERNED, VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AREAS GETTING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
STAYING SOLIDLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS LOOK TO
BE THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP THROUGH THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE GENERAL PAPG & PAGS AREAS, WHICH WILL SEE
PERIODIC CONDITIONS AS LOW AS THE LIFR CATEGORY FROM LOCALLY
DENSE FG THROUGH THE NIGHT & INTO TOMORROW MORNING, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. LLWS VALUES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS
WEAK OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL
WILL BE NEAR ELDRED ROCK THROUGH TAIYA INLET. IN THOSE LOCATIONS,
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, 17 TO 27 KTS, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS REMAIN, THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE FOG. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
REMAINED ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER AREAS OF THE INNER
CHANNELS ARE LIKELY TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. LASTLY,
THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOP ACROSS LYNN
CANAL LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AS
OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
TO COME OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW LOCATIONS, BY
FRIDAY. THEN THIS WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ321-326-
327.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB
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