072
FXAK67 PAJK 210759 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1059 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2026
EVENING, AVIATION, AND LONG TERM UPDATE
PATCHY FREEZING FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOW
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MINOR
CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST, MAINLY DROPPING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES AND
YAKUTAT, ISSUING A DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE JUNEAU
AREA, DECREASING WINDS WITHIN N LYNN CANAL AND DROPPING ITS
RESPECTIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. STRONGEST MARINE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TAIYA INLET. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR N PANHANDLE, ANGOON
TO TENAKEE SPRINGS AND NORTHWARD. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SITKA TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. PATCHY DENSE
FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR COMMUNITIES AND MARINE AREAS ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, AND FREDERICK SOUND
WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. OVERALL, MAIN
HAZARDS OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND FREEZING FOG RELATED
FOR AVIATION AND MARINE TRAVEL.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS FOG IS MAINLY AFFECTING ISOLATED AND PROTECTED
AREAS AROUND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO THIN
OUT AT TIMES THIS EVENING, BUT THEN BECOME DENSE AGAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS LIKE PETERSBURG, KAKE, GUSTAVUS, AND AREAS ACROSS
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. ALONG WITH THIS FOG, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING FOG TO FORM. PLACES THAT HAVE HAD
CONTINUED FOG ALL DAY, LIKE PETERSBURG, HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
THEIR TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY, WITH MINIMAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. WITH THE CONTINUED FOG, THESE AREAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AREAS THAT ARE
CLEAR, AND REMAIN CLEAR, WILL HAVE A LARGER CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
AS THEY FALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS SE AK TO DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF
THIS FOG AND AREAS OF CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURE WAS THE MAIN
FORECAST CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WINDS AS OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER TAIYA INLET INTO SKAGWAY WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE SOUTHEAST’S WEATHER, BLOCKING MAJOR STORMS FROM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MAIN THREAT REMAINS IN
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF AND OUR CANADIAN
NEIGHBORS. GIVEN THE NE TO SW PRESSURE GRADIENT, THINKING TAIYA
AND TAKU INLET SEE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH
STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALES FOR LYNN CANAL. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL HELP COOL ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THIS
WEEKEND; MAINLY FOR COMMUNITIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
MOUNTAINS.
THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, OVERALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
GULF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURFACE INFLECTION LOOKS
TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, WITH STRONG GUSTS PUSHING UP INTO THE CHANNELS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MORE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, AS OUTFLOW DURING THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD WILL BE COMBATING THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL,
NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THIS
PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD LOW FOLLOWING
BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. INTERMITTENT DENSE FREEZING FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, DISSIPATE, AND REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
DROPPING TAF SITES OF GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU DOWN TO LIFR WITH
VISBYS AS LOW 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AND INTERMITTENT BKN DECK NEAR
100FT AT PAJN. THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE SAME
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WHACK-A-MOLE STYLE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITION CIGS/VISBYS FOR PAJN, PAGS, AND PAPG DUE TO FZFG TO LOW
STRATUS DECK DISSIPATING AND REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS
WEAK OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL
WILL BE NEAR ELDRED ROCK THROUGH TAIYA INLET. IN THOSE LOCATIONS,
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, 17 TO 27 KTS, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS REMAIN, THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE FOG. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
REMAINED ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER AREAS OF THE INNER
CHANNELS ARE LIKELY TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. LASTLY,
THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOP ACROSS LYNN
CANAL LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AS
OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
TO COME OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW LOCATIONS, BY
FRIDAY. THEN THIS WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ321-326-
327.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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