471
FXAK67 PAJK 211511
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
611 AM AKST WED JAN 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENT BREAK IN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- MAIN THREAT TO MARINERS AND AVIATORS IS PERIODS OF DENSE FOG,
WITH FREEZING FOG LIKELY THIS MORNING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRESENCE OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES CONTINUE
UNTIL NOON TODAY. FOG IS AGAIN THICKEST ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND AND
INTO PETERSBURG, AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN PRINCE OF
WALES. LOOK FOR SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN FOG AS DRIER
NORTHERLY/EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT ON A LESSER SCALE. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. GUSTY WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR
SKAGWAY AND TAIYA INLET AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AS LIMITED MIXING
AND INVERSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN COLDER CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THIS
MORNING AS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH SOME LOCATIONS STARING OFF THE MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, GENERALLY IN THE 30S, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE SOUTHEAST’S WEATHER, BLOCKING MAJOR STORMS FROM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MAIN THREAT REMAINS IN
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF AND OUR CANADIAN
NEIGHBORS. GIVEN THE NE TO SW PRESSURE GRADIENT, THINKING TAIYA
AND TAKU INLET SEE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH
STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALES FOR LYNN CANAL. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL HELP COOL ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THIS
WEEKEND; MAINLY FOR COMMUNITIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
MOUNTAINS.
THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, OVERALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
GULF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURFACE INFLECTION LOOKS
TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, WITH STRONG GUSTS PUSHING UP INTO THE CHANNELS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP
STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MORE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, AS OUTFLOW DURING THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD WILL BE COMBATING THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL,
NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THIS
PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD LOW FOLLOWING
BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND
LIFR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AS FOG REDEVELOPS. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
(LESS) FREEZING FOG, AND MORE 'STANDARD' FOG FORMATION. AS IS SO
OFTEN THE CASE WITH FOG, THAT LIKELY MEANS THAT CIGS AND VIS WILL
FLUCTUATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE (SKAGWAY
AND HAINES) WILL INSTEAD SEE OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY SKAGWAY,
RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHTER OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING LYNN
CANAL AND TAKU INLET, WHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
STRONG WINDS IN TAIYA INLET. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING, WITH
THICKET ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND, CLARENCE STRAIT AND PORTIONS OF
GLACIER BAY INTO WESTERN ICY STRAIT WATERS. FOG LOOKS TO DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE. LASTLY,
THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOP ACROSS LYNN
CANAL LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG LINGER FROM CAPE EDGECOMBE DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE. AS
OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TO COME OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW
LOCATIONS, BY FRIDAY. THEN THIS WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES
DUE TO A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
GULF WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AND
REMAIN ELEVATED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR
AKZ321>322-326>328.
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...DS
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