050
FXAK67 PAJK 220036
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2026
SHORT TERM
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
FOG IS MAINLY AFFECTING ISOLATED AND PROTECTED AREAS AROUND THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH A MARINE FOG LAYER OVER THE GULF
COAST WATERS. THIS LOW MARINE LAYER FOG HAS ALSO REACHED SITKA
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. DENSE FOG AND
FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THAT ARE
SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE THAT CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CALM WINDS, COULD SEE AREAS
OF FOG. THIS FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAN IMPACT MARINE,
AIR, AND LAND TRAVEL. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. WITH LITTLE
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL QUICKLY
AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. IF WIND DOES INCREASE, IN AN AREA, WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM ALOFT COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WINDS AS OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER TAIYA INLET INTO SKAGWAY WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. UNTIL THEN, WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WHILE PLACES THAT SEE
INCREASING WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARMER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. WITH THE
WEAK, SHALLOW INVERSIONS, ANY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN MOST PLACES
SEEING RAIN WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST GOING
FORWARD TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE THE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOG WILL LIKELY SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO 1/4SM WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHERE THE FOG IS NOT ABLE
TO SET UP. PLACES THAT ARE LIKELY TO SEE FOG ARE THOSE THAT DID
DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE, FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF THE FOG NEAR THE SURFACE.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS
OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WILL BE
NEAR ELDRED ROCK THROUGH TAIYA INLET. IN THOSE LOCATIONS, NORTHERLY
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, 17 TO 27 KTS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS REMAIN, THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD
CONTINUES TO BE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE REMAINED ACROSS FREDERICK
SOUND, GLACIER BAY, AND THE GULF COAST INTO SITKA SOUND THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OF THESE CHANNELS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/4
NAUTICAL MILE ALLOWING FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE. OTHER AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. LASTLY, THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS LYNN CANAL LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AS
OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO COME OUT OF
CROSS SOUND, AND OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW LOCATIONS, BY FRIDAY. THEN
THIS WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
GULF WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SE GULF WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ323.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ327-
328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...SF/AP/ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page