634
FXAK67 PAJK 220732 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1032 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2026
EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE
COUPLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS PATCHY
FREEZING FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
HOVERING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WENT WITH A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO LAST NIGHT
AND DROPPED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE THE
MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNEL COMMUNITIES AND FOR YAKUTAT. COOLEST
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SECOND CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE TO INCREASE DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AREA WINDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 9AM THROUGH 3PM IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO MARGINAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. TWO FACTORS
LEAD TO THIS DECISION: CROSS BARRIER FLOW EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS
AND A CRITICAL LAYER AROUND THE 600-500 MB LAYER. WHILE
DEFINITELY NOT AN IDEAL SITUATION, THINKING THAT WINDS AT THIS
LAYER WILL BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY CAP FOR
WINDS TO DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. KEPT THESE WINDS MOSTLY AS A LOW
GRADE ADVISORY LEVEL, 40 MPH GUSTS; HOWEVER, THEY COULD UP TO 50
MPH PROVIDED BOTH THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY (~5 KNOTS)
HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES DO NOT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY TO REMOVE THE
INVERSION.
AVIATION
/THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/
SIMILAR AVIATION CONDITIONS ONGOING TO YESTERDAY EVENING,
PREDOMINATE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS DOWN TO LIFR DUE TO FREEZING FOG. FORECAST
REMAINS A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING AND DURATION OF FOG AS IT
DISSIPATES, REAPPEARS, OR LINGERS NEARBY TAF SITES. CURRENT
THINKING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WHACK-A-MOLE STYLE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITION
CIGS/VISBYS FOR PAJN AND PASI DUE TO FZFG LINGERING NEARBY
WAFTING OVER THE AIRPORT. THIS FOGGY REGIME IS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END AS LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT, SO HAVE IMPROVING
OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR PAJN AFTER 12Z INTO THURSDAY. WINDS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE WITH BE 5KTS OR LESS
AND VARIABLE, OUTSIDE OF SKAGWAY AND HAINES WITH OUTFLOW WINDS
SUSTAINED 10 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30KTS.
LOOKING TOWARDS THURSDAY, ADDED NE-LY LLWS AROUND 30KTS NEAR 2KFT
FOR THE JUNEAU AIRPORT AS A MARGINAL MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT DEVELOPS
AROUND 18Z THROUGH 00Z IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS GASTINEAU CHANNEL
AND TAKU INLET.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 336 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2026
SHORT TERM...
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
FOG IS MAINLY AFFECTING ISOLATED AND PROTECTED AREAS AROUND THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH A MARINE FOG LAYER OVER THE GULF
COAST WATERS. THIS LOW MARINE LAYER FOG HAS ALSO REACHED SITKA
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. DENSE FOG AND
FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THAT ARE
SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE THAT CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CALM WINDS, COULD SEE AREAS
OF FOG. THIS FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAN IMPACT MARINE,
AIR, AND LAND TRAVEL. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. WITH LITTLE
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL QUICKLY
AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. IF WIND DOES INCREASE, IN AN AREA, WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM ALOFT COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WINDS AS OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER TAIYA INLET INTO SKAGWAY WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING.
LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. UNTIL THEN, WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WHILE PLACES THAT SEE
INCREASING WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARMER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. WITH THE
WEAK, SHALLOW INVERSIONS, ANY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN MOST PLACES
SEEING RAIN WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS
OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WILL BE
NEAR ELDRED ROCK THROUGH TAIYA INLET. IN THOSE LOCATIONS, NORTHERLY
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, 17 TO 27 KTS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS REMAIN, THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD
CONTINUES TO BE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE REMAINED ACROSS FREDERICK
SOUND, GLACIER BAY, AND THE GULF COAST INTO SITKA SOUND THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OF THESE CHANNELS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/4
NAUTICAL MILE ALLOWING FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE. OTHER AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. LASTLY, THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS LYNN CANAL LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. AS
OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO COME OUT OF
CROSS SOUND, AND OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW LOCATIONS, BY FRIDAY. THEN
THIS WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW
GULF WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SE GULF WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ323-327-
328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
UPDATE...NM/NC
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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