763
FXAK67 PAJK 221453
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKST THU JAN 22 2026
SHORT TERM
POCKETS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. LOCATIONS CURRENTLY SEEING THE
THICKEST FOG ARE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND,
KETCHIKAN BOROUGH, FREDERICK SOUND, TENAKEE SPRINGS, GLACIER BAY
AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. SITKA WAS EXPERIENCING DENSE
FREEZING FOG LAST NIGHT, BUT ENOUGH DRIER AIR HAS MIXED THE FOG
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUND. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN FOG COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, DO EXPECT MORE TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT, LIKELY IN THE
SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE STUBBORN
INVERSIONS. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY (GENERALLY IN
THE 30S) AND LOWS TONIGHT (UPPER TEENS TO 20S).
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER TAIYA INLET INTO
SKAGWAY WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY COULD MIX DOWN INTO DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THESE
WINDS MOSTLY AS A LOW GRADE ADVISORY LEVEL, 40 MPH GUSTS; HOWEVER,
THEY COULD UP TO 50 MPH PROVIDED BOTH THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS
SLIGHTLY (~5 KNOTS) HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES DO NOT IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO REMOVE THE INVERSION.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. UNTIL THEN, WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WHILE PLACES THAT SEE
INCREASING WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARMER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. WITH THE
WEAK, SHALLOW INVERSIONS, ANY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN MOST PLACES
SEEING RAIN WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
BANKS OF FOG AND STRATUS SHROUDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AK AS OF
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH OTHER LOCATIONS CONCURRENTLY
ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES. SOME CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
ITSELF, AS WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO BUILD, WEAKENING THE GRIP
WHICH THE FOG HAS MAINTAINED OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS ADJACENT TO STEPHEN'S PASSAGE. THE ONE
OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADDENDUM, AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS,
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OUT OF THE NE OF
AROUND 30 KT NEAR 2KFT FOR THE JUNEAU AIRPORT AS A MARGINAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT DEVELOPS AROUND 18Z THROUGH 00Z IN THE
AFTERNOON TOWARDS GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND TAKU INLET.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU
INLET, WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO NEAR GALE. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING, WITH THICKEST FOG ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND, CLARENCE STRAIT
AND GLACIER BAY INTO WESTERN ICY STRAIT WATERS. FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MORE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS, INCREASING THE GRADIENT ACROSS
SE AK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AS OUTFLOW WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO COME OUT OF CROSS SOUND, AND
OTHER COMMON OUTFLOW LOCATIONS, BY FRIDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SE GULF WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ321-327-
328-330.
STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...DS
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