076
FXAK67 PAJK 230037
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2026
SHORT TERM
OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN SE AK WITH FOG
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SE AK. THIS MORNING WIND
QUICKLY INCREASED OVER THE SKAGWAY AREA WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AROUND
50 MPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT TIMES OF STRONGER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA, AND THROUGH LYNN CANAL. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT ANTICIPATE
TAIYA INLET AND SKAGWAY TO HOLD ON TO STRONGER WINDS FOR LONGER THAN
OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN SE AK. WINDS ALSO INCREASED OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS THIS MORNING, MAINLY AROUND THE AML AND AJ
DOCK AREA AND OUT OF GASTINEAU. THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DOWN SLOPING CONTINUES TO
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE DOWNTOWN AREA, IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
OTHER AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LARGE DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES
AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE COLDEST PLACES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR
GUSTAVUS AND HOONAH WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TEENS
LONG TERM
MID-RANGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STUBBORN RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF CANADA AND SOUTHEAST, WITH A SERIES OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING OFF THE JAPANESE AND KAMCHATKA COAST,
TRANSITING THE ALEUTIAN STORM TRACK, ATTEMPTING TO BRING GALE TO
STORM FORCE LOWS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. CURRENT PROGNOSIS HAS
THESE STORMS REACHING FULL MATURITY SOUTHWEST OF THE AK PENINSULA,
WITH SURFACE LOWS WEAKENING AS THE LIFT INTO THE KENAI. FOR RIGHT
NOW, THE WEEKEND HOLDS BENIGN WEATHER; LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES,
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING CONCERNS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, CREATING A WELCOME FORECAST
CHALLENGE ON TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE, ANTICIPATE SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST, LOCALIZED STRONG-GALES NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALES FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS.
TOUCHING ON SNOW, QPF TOTALS LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED WITH
RESPECT TO SNOW POTENTIAL, WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
HIGHLIGHTING SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 10:1. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS 2 TO 4 INCHES MONDAY FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
(GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, JUNEAU); SNOW BECOMING RAIN BY TUESDAY. HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WILL HOLD ON TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LONGER,
LIKELY BRINGING 4 TO 6 INCHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY
IMPACTING HIGHWAYS AND THE CHILKAT PENINSULA.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED.
OFFSHORE HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO THE INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND THE INTERIOR, WITH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF JUNEAU. THESE INCREASED WINDS FROM COOLING AND
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE, HELPING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
LEAST IN THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF FOG TO REFORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND POW AND
CLARENCE STRAIT. SIMILAR PATTERN OF IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
WITH ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP THINNING OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF
NOT EARLIER.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND
IN NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE OUT OF TAKU INLET. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, CAN ALSO CREATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW, BUT N
LYNN INTO TAIYA INLET COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS LAST FOR LONGER.
OTHERWISE, FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF FOG IN ISOLATED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT AREAS OF DENSE FOG, WITH VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 NAUTICAL MILE, CAN
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOOKING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS, INCREASING THE GRADIENT ACROSS
SE AK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): FAIRLY BENIGN WINDS AND WAVES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOME INCREASED AREAS OF WIND ARE
COMING OUT OF COMMON OUTFLOW AREAS, INCLUDING SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY,
OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, AND NEAR GREY ISLET. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THEN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS.
THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SE GULF WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB
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