774
FXAK67 PAJK 230558 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
858 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES THIS EVENING INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE YAKUTAT AREA AS WELL AS THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES OF THE
NORTHERN GULF DUE TO VERY LOW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THOSE AREAS. YAKUTAT DISPLAYED A VERY RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY
AND CEILING HEIGHT AS THE CLOUDS ADVECTED INTO THE AIRPORT AND THE
FOG IS THICK ENOUGH THAT AIRPORT LIGHTS NORMALLY VISIBLE ON
WEBCAMS AT THE AIRPORT ARE COMPLETELY OBSCURED FROM THE CAMERAS
VIEWS. EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM...
OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN SE AK WITH FOG
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SE AK. THIS MORNING WIND
QUICKLY INCREASED OVER THE SKAGWAY AREA WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AROUND
50 MPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT TIMES OF STRONGER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA, AND THROUGH LYNN CANAL. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT ANTICIPATE
TAIYA INLET AND SKAGWAY TO HOLD ON TO STRONGER WINDS FOR LONGER THAN
OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN SE AK. WINDS ALSO INCREASED OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS THIS MORNING, MAINLY AROUND THE AML AND AJ
DOCK AREA AND OUT OF GASTINEAU. THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DOWN SLOPING CONTINUES TO
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE DOWNTOWN AREA, IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
OTHER AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LARGE DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES
AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN. THE COLDEST PLACES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR
GUSTAVUS AND HOONAH WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TEENS
LONG TERM...
MID-RANGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STUBBORN RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF CANADA AND SOUTHEAST, WITH A SERIES OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING OFF THE JAPANESE AND KAMCHATKA COAST,
TRANSITING THE ALEUTIAN STORM TRACK, ATTEMPTING TO BRING GALE TO
STORM FORCE LOWS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. CURRENT PROGNOSIS HAS
THESE STORMS REACHING FULL MATURITY SOUTHWEST OF THE AK PENINSULA,
WITH SURFACE LOWS WEAKENING AS THE LIFT INTO THE KENAI. FOR RIGHT
NOW, THE WEEKEND HOLDS BENIGN WEATHER; LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES,
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING CONCERNS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, CREATING A WELCOME FORECAST
CHALLENGE ON TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE, ANTICIPATE SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST, LOCALIZED STRONG-GALES NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALES FOR MANY INNER
CHANNELS.
TOUCHING ON SNOW, QPF TOTALS LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED WITH
RESPECT TO SNOW POTENTIAL, WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
HIGHLIGHTING SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 10:1. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS 2 TO 4 INCHES MONDAY FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
(GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, JUNEAU); SNOW BECOMING RAIN BY TUESDAY. HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WILL HOLD ON TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LONGER,
LIKELY BRINGING 4 TO 6 INCHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY
IMPACTING HIGHWAYS AND THE CHILKAT PENINSULA.
AVIATION...MOSTLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CONCERN. THE POCKETS ARE MAINLY DEALING WITH FOG
(HYDABURG AND YAKUTAT) AND GUSTY OUTFLOW (DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, TAKU
INLET, AND SKAGWAY/LYNN CANAL). THE FOG IS THE LARGER CONCERN WITH
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN BOTH YAKUTAT (DUE TO MARINE LOW CLOUDS)
AND HYDABURG (DUE TO PERSISTENT RADIATIVE FOG) DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS AND AT 200 FT RESPECTIVELY CURRENTLY. THE FOG IS NOT
VERY WIDESPREAD THOUGH WITH THE FOG NEAR HYDABURG CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
THE FOG NEAR YAKUTAT MAINLY IN YAKUTAT AND AREAS FARTHER WEST.
EXPECT THE FOG, WITH ITS IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS, TO STICK AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AND MAY SPREAD TO SOME OTHER
STRAITS AND BAYS ALONG PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY LAST LONGER THAN THAT (EVEN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING) DUE TO THE LOW SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND LITTLE WIND TO BLOW ANY OF IT OUT OF THE AREA. AS FOR THE
GUSTY WINDS, GENERALLY SEEING 20 TO 30 MPH GROUND LEVEL WINDS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE (THOUGH SKAGWAY IS SEEING OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 60 MPH). EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY AT SKAGWAY), BUT SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GUSTY WINDS BLOWING ACROSS
THE RIDGE LINE NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU THIS EVENING AS WELL CAUSING
SOME TURBULENCE, BUT THAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
REDUCING TURBULENCE CHANCES AS WELL.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND
IN NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE OUT OF TAKU INLET. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, CAN ALSO CREATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW, BUT N
LYNN INTO TAIYA INLET COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS LAST FOR LONGER.
OTHERWISE, FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF FOG IN ISOLATED AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT AREAS OF DENSE FOG, WITH VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 NAUTICAL MILE, CAN
STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOOKING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS, INCREASING THE GRADIENT ACROSS
SE AK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): FAIRLY BENIGN WINDS AND WAVES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOME INCREASED AREAS OF WIND ARE
COMING OUT OF COMMON OUTFLOW AREAS, INCLUDING SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY,
OUT OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, AND NEAR GREY ISLET. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THEN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CHANGE IN PATTERN COMES DUE TO A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS.
THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SE GULF WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ317-328.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAB
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