250
FXAK67 PAJK 231445
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKST FRI JAN 23 2026
SHORT TERM
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. FOG WHICH HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND THE NORTHERN GULF AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING. WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN (OR IN THE CASE OF THE NORTHERN GULF, BE PUSHED
WEST) THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU WILL LIKEWISE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG TO REFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAN IT HAS BEEN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A NEW SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND/INTO MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. UNTIL THEN, WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WHILE PLACES THAT SEE
INCREASING WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARMER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. WITH THE
WEAK, SHALLOW INVERSIONS, ANY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN MOST PLACES
SEEING RAIN WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY/
BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE LYNN CANAL REGION, INCLUDING PAGY &
PAHN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DIMINISHING TREND STARTING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON & PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING, PAYA HAD SOME DENSE FG, GIVING LIFR
CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE PRECIPITOUSLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE MVFR
CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING, & WILL BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FOR PAYA, ONCE AGAIN, TO WITHIN THE
IFR/LIFR RANGE, LATE THIS EVENING AS CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES & CALM
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BRING THE TEMPERATURE BACK
DOWN TO THE DEWPOINT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES & GOOD VISIBILITY, YIELDING VFR CATEGORY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS VALUES REMAIN RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: DENSE FOG REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY BEING
PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN 10-15 KT, WITH
STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING FOR THE MORE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF, AND LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER
COASTAL OUTFLOW AREAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GULF LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
INNER CHANNELS: STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KT) WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
AND NEAR TYPICAL OUTFLOW AREAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THEIR WAKE, 5 TO 10 KT WINDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS, WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY BRINGS WITH IT A RETURN TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-
328.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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