347
FXAK67 PAJK 231829 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
929 AM AKST FRI JAN 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. FOG WHICH HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND THE NORTHERN GULF AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING. WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN (OR IN THE CASE OF THE NORTHERN GULF, BE PUSHED
WEST) THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU WILL LIKEWISE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG TO REFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAN IT HAS BEEN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A NEW SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND/INTO MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. UNTIL THEN, WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WHILE PLACES THAT SEE
INCREASING WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARMER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WANTS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. WITH THE
WEAK, SHALLOW INVERSIONS, ANY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN MOST PLACES
SEEING RAIN WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION.../THRU 18Z SATURDAY/
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AS BREEZY OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO POUR OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES AND DOWN LYNN CANAL FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
LLWS IS PRESENT OR FORECAST, APPROACHES TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE A FEW BUMPS ON THE WAY DOWN. DENSE FOG AND A
MARINE LAYER CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
HAZARD THIS MORNING, LIMITED NOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
KAYAK ISLAND EASTWARD TOWARDS YAKUTAT. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE
MARINE LAYER HAS LOWERED TO THE SURFACE AND DROPPED VIS TO 1/4 SM
OR LESS THERE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: DENSE FOG REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
SLOWLY BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN 10-15
KT, WITH STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING FOR THE MORE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF, AND LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY AFTER COASTAL OUTFLOW AREAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A
SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.
INNER CHANNELS: STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KT) WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
AND NEAR TYPICAL OUTFLOW AREAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THEIR WAKE, 5 TO 10 KT WINDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS, WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY BRINGS WITH IT A RETURN TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GFS
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