282
FXAK67 PAJK 240645 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
945 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY
ACROSS SE AK. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE FOG OVER THE NE
GULF INTO YAKUTAT AND CONTINUED STRONGER WINDS OVER TAIYA INLET
INTO SKAGWAY. THE FOG AROUND THE YAKUTAT AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. AS OF WRITING THIS, THE FOG HAS REENTERED THE YAKUTAT
AREA BRINGING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1 SM. TIMES OF DENSE FOG,
BRINGING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4, MAY ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY ALSO
BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED
AREAS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS SINCE WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY OUT MORE. WINDS
AROUND SE AK REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY.
AREAS NEAR TAIYA INLET INTO SKAGWAY HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS HOLD ON FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
A PATTERN CHANGE EMERGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH OUR PLEASANT, BUT FOGGY, CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO
ONSHORE FLOW, SNOW/RAIN, AND WIND. TRYING TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE, A
COMPLEX OF SYSTEMS IN THE WEST PACIFIC, FED BY A STOUT JET AND
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN OFF THE EAST COAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES, WILL MERGE THEY MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA,
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE RUSSIAN COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN RESPONSE TO
THESE SYSTEMS LATE SUNDAY, WITH MINIMUM GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE COAST, AND SEAS INCREASING BEYOND 15
FT TUESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY LOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ONE CONSEQUENCE
OF THIS PATTERN IS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF SITKA/ANGOON BEFORE A TRANSITION
TO RAINFALL OCCURS. FOR A MUCH MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION, REFERENCE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW; KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE, EXPECT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AT SEA LEVEL FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR (HOONAH,
GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU) AND IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z SUNDAY/...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS FOR
MOST AREAS. EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME IFR FOG AROUND YAKUTAT AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY AND OUT OF TAKU INLET. THE FOG NEAR
YAKUTAT HAS SEEN VIS AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 200
FT THIS EVENING. BOTH CEILING AND VIS HAVE IMPROVED AS OF 630 PM,
BUT FOG BANKS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR BY ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE FOG COMING IN AND
OUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE A PROBLEM THERE THROUGH TH REST OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR THE GUSTY WINDS,
THEY HAVE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS EVENING (GUSTING TO
20 TO 30 MPH CURRENTLY) AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AND STEADY TO
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CURRENT SEA STATE ALONG OUR COAST IS DOMINATED
BY PROPER WEST-SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED FROM FAR AWAY SYSTEMS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH COASTAL BUOYS 11 TO 14 SECONDS AT 3
TO 5 FT, A WELCOME BREAK FROM OUR ACTIVE DECEMBER. DENSE FOG IS
STILL IMPACTING THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS WEST TOWARD
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. A GALE FORCE
LOW LOCATED AT 45N 156W IS OPENING A FETCH WINDOW FOR OUR COAST,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY ENERGY INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY; HOWEVER, DEEP WATER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FT, SWELL CONTINUING. MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING SUNDAY, FORESHADOWING AN APPROACHING STORM FORCE
SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING
ALONG OUR COAST LATE MONDAY, WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FT FORMING OFF HAIDA GWAII
AND PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALIZED STORM
FORCE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WE ARE SEEING NEAR-GALE TO GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE TAIYA INLET AND TAKU
INLET. LOOK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY FOR THESE LOCALIZED AREAS AS THE SUPPORTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG. LATE SUNDAY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS START INCREASING IN THE SOUTH, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS IN LYNN AND GLACIER BAY, FORESHADOWING AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM. LOOK FOR STRONG BREEZES LATE MONDAY, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TUESDAY, NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EXPOSED
SOUTHERLY SECTIONS OF CLARENCE AND REVILLA NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
HYDROLOGY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER IN MOISTURE, STEMMING FROM
PREVIOUS/ONGOING UNCERTAINTY AROUND FORMER TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN
OFF THE PHILIPPINE COAST (AND OTHER EQUATORIAL MOISTURE),
INTERACTION WITH A STOUT JET IN THE PACIFIC, AND CYCLOGENESIS.
WHILE EFI’S AND ENSEMBLE MEAN IVT GUIDANCE FROM SCRIPPS/CW3E
REMAIN BELOW MORE SERIOUS THRESHOLDS FOR MAJOR IMPACTS, THE QPF
TOTALS LIKELY TRANSLATE TO MORE SNOW BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
RAINFALL OCCURS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE, THIS
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PAIR NICELY WITH THE
TERRAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE; EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL COMES
TO MIND.
RAINFALL:
AS OF FRIDAY MORNING, WE CAN EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL NEXT WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE DAYS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
AT SEA LEVEL. COMMUNITIES ON SOUTHEAST ASPECTS IN THE SOUTHERN
REGION (LOOKING AT YOU KETCHIKAN) WILL LIKELY DO BETTER, 2 TO 4
INCHES.
SNOWFALL:
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING WITH RATES/INTENSITY
MONDAY. FOR PELICAN, ELFIN, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU: LIGHT LOW-
DENSITY SNOW BECOMES WET AND DENSE MONDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTALS MONDAY FOR SNOW ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE NEAR 2 TO 4 INCHES. AT SEA LEVEL FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY, HOLDING ON TO SNOW LONGER THROUGH TUESDAY,
TRANSITIONING TO RAINFALL SLOWLY, ESPECIALLY OUT THE ROAD IN
HAINES. SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW ARE STILL NEAR 3 TO 5 INCHES; OUT
THE ROAD IN HAINES AND THE CHILKAT PENINSULA SEEING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST SENTENCE, THERE IS ALWAYS A
PLETHORA OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WEST
PACIFIC, WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS OF ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FEATURING
“MODERATE” AR CONDITIONS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND UPDATE, STAY TUNED INTO WEATHER.GOV/AJK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ317.
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...AP
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