606
FXAK67 PAJK 241432
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
532 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2026
SHORT TERM
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS, WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, WITH THE ONLY WEATHER CONDITIONS OF NOTE BEING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MARINE LAYER TO APPROACH THE OUTER COAST, AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF. A SYSTEM IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARDS, THROUGH
THE RIDGE, BUT WILL BE LARGELY STALLED THROUGH SATURDAY, ONLY
MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SE AK.
LONG TERM
A PATTERN CHANGE EMERGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR PLEASANT, BUT FOGGY, CONDITIONS GIVING
WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW, SNOW/RAIN, AND WIND. TRYING TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE, A COMPLEX OF SYSTEMS IN THE WEST PACIFIC, FED BY A STOUT
JET AND MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, WILL MERGE THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA, MOVING WEST TOWARD THE RUSSIAN COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN
RESPONSE TO THESE SYSTEMS LATE SUNDAY, WITH MINIMUM GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE COAST, AND SEAS INCREASING
BEYOND 15 FT TUESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY LOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ONE
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS PATTERN IS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF SITKA/ANGOON BEFORE
A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL OCCURS. FOR A MUCH MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION, REFERENCE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW; KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE, EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AT SEA LEVEL FOR THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR (HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU) AND IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL BROAD
LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/
THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW HAS
FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGION,
INCLUDING PAGY & PAHN, CAUSING THEIR SUSTAINED SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, AS WELL, AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER RELAXED. LLWS VALUES WILL ALSO STAY BENIGN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE NE GULF COAST AREA, INCLUDING PAYA, MAY SEE SOME
PERIODIC FG THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAKING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
INTERMITTENTLY JUMP BETWEEN THE LIFR & VFR CATEGORIES, BUT THAT
WILL CLEAR UP BY THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE
SUBSIDED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS COLLAPSED. THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. WAVEHEIGHTS REMAIN ~3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
ENTRANCES, WHERE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: THROUGH SATURDAY, WINDS OF ~5-15 KT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING ~3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT WORKS IT WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF
AK, WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ317.
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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