241
FXAK67 PAJK 241825 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
DENSE FOG HAS RECEDED AND VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS STILL EXPECTED JUST OFFSHORE OF ICY CAPE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STAYING PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE
MARINE AREAS TO THE WEST OF YAKUTAT. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON ARRIVES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW BACK TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS, WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
WITH THE ONLY WEATHER CONDITIONS OF NOTE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MARINE LAYER TO APPROACH THE OUTER COAST, AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF. A SYSTEM IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARDS, THROUGH THE
RIDGE, BUT WILL BE LARGELY STALLED THROUGH SATURDAY, ONLY MAKING
HEADWAY INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK TO SE AK.
LONG TERM
A PATTERN CHANGE EMERGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH OUR PLEASANT, BUT FOGGY, CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO
ONSHORE FLOW, SNOW/RAIN, AND WIND. TRYING TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE, A
COMPLEX OF SYSTEMS IN THE WEST PACIFIC, FED BY A STOUT JET AND
MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NOKAEN OFF THE EAST COAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES, WILL MERGE THEY MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA,
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE RUSSIAN COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN RESPONSE TO
THESE SYSTEMS LATE SUNDAY, WITH MINIMUM GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE COAST, AND SEAS INCREASING BEYOND 15
FT TUESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY LOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ONE CONSEQUENCE
OF THIS PATTERN IS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF SITKA/ANGOON BEFORE A TRANSITION
TO RAINFALL OCCURS. FOR A MUCH MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION, REFERENCE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW; KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE, EXPECT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AT SEA LEVEL FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR (HOONAH,
GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU) AND IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
CPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT DUE TO THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW WINDS
PERSISTING IN LYNN CANAL, NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES STILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW BEFORE MOST
LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL BROAD LOW FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. THE NE GULF COAST MAY STILL SEE SOME FOG, BUT MOST IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS NOT LOOKING AS
LIKELY TO IMPACT YAKUTAT, UNTIL AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING WHERE
CHANCES RETURN FOR SOME VIS RESTRICTION AND LOW STRATUS, WITH
POTENTIAL TO DROP FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER. THE OUTER
COASTLINE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING FROM AROUND 12Z TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS AOB 3000 FT,
EXPECTED TO START WITH SITKA AND ALONG BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF
ISLAND ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND
FROM W TO E JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FOR THESE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM A WEAK NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW TO A SE-LY DIRECTION, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY CALM AND BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE
SUBSIDED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS COLLAPSED. THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. WAVEHEIGHTS REMAIN ~3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
ENTRANCES, WHERE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: THROUGH SATURDAY, WINDS OF ~5-15 KT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING ~3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT WORKS IT WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF
AK, WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...
UPDATE...CONTINO/NM
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...GFS
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