261
FXAK67 PAJK 110740
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE STRONG FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE
RAIN. INCREASED WINDS FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THEY ARE CONTINUING TO RIP THROUGH LYNN CANAL. MULTIPLE GUSTS
40+KTS HAINES AND 50+KTS AT SKAGWAY THIS EVENING. STARTED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR HAINES A BIT EARLIER AND ENDED UP EXTENDING THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR SKAGWAY UNTIL 5AM WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND RAIN WILL
DIMINISH, WITH WIND ADVISORIES DROPPING OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM FORCE LOW QUICKLY
LIFTS INTO THE GULF AND WILL APPROACH SE AK BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LARGE SEAS OUT IN THE GULF.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- TWO STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND STRONG WINDS, WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM SEEING
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS.
- 10 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM.
- COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM TODAY WERE
TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE TWO UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A LOW-END GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, BRINGING ELEVATED WIND SPEED AND
STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
TO THE OUTER COAST AND ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS OF THE PANHANDLE.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE COMMUNITIES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
JUMPS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
STARTS OFF AS A HURRICANE FORCE LOW IN THE GULF, WITH THE
STRONGEST SWATH OF WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND BRINGING A
LARGE AREA OF INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 40 FT OFFSHORE IN THE
DEEPER WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT WILL
STAY STORM FORCE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
SENDS A FRONT NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, MULTIPLE COMMUNITIES HAVE THE CHANCE OF SEEING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA, SO HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING MORE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE WARNING LEVELS OF SNOW, BETWEEN 10 TO
12 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS ON THURSDAY. WINDS LOOK TO QUICKLY CALM
DOWN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE AS WE SEE
A LOW REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT CONTINUES TO SEND
WAVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
WET AND BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE COLDER AIR IN THE YUKON AND THE LOW
REMAINING AWAY FROM THE COAST, WE EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
WHICH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. WITH
THIS RETURN OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND, ACCUMULATIONS DON'T LOOK TO
BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
MORE ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE
FINALLY START TO SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING
TO BUILD OVER THE YUKON AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN JUNEAU AND
WHITEHORSE TIGHTENS. THIS WILL START TO INCREASE THE WINDS FLOWING
THROUGH THE TERRAIN LEADING TO INCREASED OUTFLOW WINDS. ONE THING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW. CPC
OUTLOOKS FOR 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT BELOW NORMAL
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 6-10 DAYS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR 8-14 DAYS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/
A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH SE AK TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VIS AND CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR UNDER STEADIER RAIN. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN SE AK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES INTO BC
AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL WITH RAIN AND REDUCED
VIS/CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS 12-20G22-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGER
TONIGHT FOR PAHN WITH GUSTS TO 40KT AND PAGY WITH GUSTS TO 50KT.
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LLWS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH WINDS 2KFT
ALOFT 30-40KT, DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL IMPACT OUR COAST THURSDAY. MARINERS ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD MAKE READY FOR SOUTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS,
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE, AND LARGE SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
TUESDAY MORNING WIND AND SEAS ARE IN A RELATIVE BENIGN STATE, WITH
ALL BUOYS REPORTING SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS AND
SEAS LESS THAN 7 FT. WAVE ENERGY WAS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE SYSTEMS PRESENT; DOMINANT PERIOD IS GENERALLY 6 TO
9 SECONDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A NEAR GALE FORCE LOW FORMS NEAR THE KENAI
DRIVING AN OCCLUDING FRONT TO OUR COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST GENERATING SOUTHEAST FRESH SEAS MASKING UNDERLYING
WESTERLY GROUND SWELL, BRINGING A CONFUSED SEA STATE AND
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 15 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE, DRIVING 35 TO 40 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY. WIND AND SEAS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A NEAR-GALE FORCE
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF GALE FORCE
WILL BE CONFINED TO LYNN CANAL AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH
NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR MAJOR NORTH TO SOUTH FACING
CHANNELS. WINDS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A STORM
FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE COAST, BRINGING GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS TO MANY PASSAGES. THIS STORM FORCE LOW WILL GENERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS OF 35 TO 40 FT ALONG OUR COAST, WITH THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INTO CROSS
SOUND, CHATHAM, AND SUMNER OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AKZ318-319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ322-323.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AKZ322-323-327-328-330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ328.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-033-036-651-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-034-035-053-641>644-661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
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