139
FXAK67 PAJK 112140 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1239 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATE...KEY POINTS FOR MID DAY UPDATE
- MARINE STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
OF THE OUTER COAST FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD.
- WINTER STORM WARNING ARE NOW POSTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR HAINES BOROUGH AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY FOR AN
INCREASED HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS
OF SE ALASKA SOUTH OF LISIANSKI STRAIT THURSDAY TO INCLUDE
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KETCHIKAN...ANNETTE
ISLAND...MISTY FJORDS AND HYDER.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
MAIN IMPACT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN FLANK OF A STORM
FORCE LOW (CURRENTLY SEEN IN LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE PASS NEAR
51.8N AND 152.8W) THAT WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR A 970 MB LOW NEAR
147W TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ASCAT INDICATING THERE IS
ALREADY A LARGE SWATH OF 55KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW. THE MOST PROBABLY TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING
A WIDE SWATH OF STRONG WINDS FROM 50 TO 65 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE ALASKA TO INCLUDE
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOUTH OF TRACY ARM FJORD
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE, WE HAVE ISSUED
MARITIME STORM WARNINGS FOR THE HIGH WIND AND LARGE SEA STATE
EXPECTATIONS (IN EXCESS OF 30 FT) NOW FOR AREAS OF THE OPEN GULFAK SOUTH
OF LISIANSKI STRAIT (NORTH OF SITKA). THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND LATE THURSDAY AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MT
FAIRWEATHER AND SITKA. IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR
SITKA, THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE LAND AREAS HAVE
BEEN POSTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS TRACK TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM
BARANOF ISLAND EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF TRACY ARM FJORD. GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO STORM WARNINGS BASED ON HOW MUCH
OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS THE LOW
TRACKS INLAND...STAY TUNED.
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK, WE HAVE
PLACED A ZONE OF HEAVIER SNOW IN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE HAINES BOROUGH. THE SKAGWAY AREA IS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS SNOWFALL WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS TIME
AROUND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THOSE AREAS WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH AREAS NEAR SEA
LEVEL RECEIVING AROUND 4 INCHES AND AREAS NEAR HAINES CUSTOMS
RECEVING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SKAGWAY
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS AMOUNTS, WITH LESS MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS AND HEAVIER RATES
ARE ANTICIPATING PRECIP TYPE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FAIRLY EARLY
ON. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO START FROM WARM GROUND
CONDITIONS. WHITE PASS ON THE KLONKIKE HIGHWAY IS EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WE HAVE,
THEREFORE, POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY BOROUGH TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTH KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND WHITE PASS.
AVIATION UPDATE
GENERALLY MVFR CENTAL AND SOUTH TODAY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH SOME LLWS PERSISTING FOR KETCHIKAN BEFORE A
LULL LATE THIS EVENING. WE DO SEE WINDS REALOADING AND BECOMING
STRONGER THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH WIND IMPACTS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT TO AVIATION THEN. TO THE NORTH,
HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY (MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE). 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 632 AM AKST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, WITH SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINTER STORM WATCH AND HIGH WIND WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
-COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT SE AK, AS THE THE
EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STEERS SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
AREA. THE CURRENT FRONT MOVING THROUGH HAS BROUGHT PERIODS OF RAIN
AND WIND TO MUCH OF SE AK, AND ANTICIPATE THAT WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS OFF TO THE E THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP SETS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM ADVANCES UP FROM
THE S. THIS SYSTEM, A STORM FORCE LOW, WILL BRING WITH IT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS, RAIN, AND (FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE)
SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
THE BIG QUESTION MARK WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST IS FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND LANDFALL IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF CROSS SOUND, THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS HIGHLY LIKELY
TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY ALSO EXIST NEAR SEA LEVEL, IN PARTICULAR AROUND HAINES.
1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE 'MARGINAL'
VICINITY OF 1285-1295 DECAMETERS, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND -4C. WHILE NORMALLY, THESE WOULD NOT BE SLAM DUNKS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL ON THEIR OWN, WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SNOW MELT COOLING POTENTIAL.
WHILE UP TO 10 INCHES MAY FALL ALONG THE HIGHWAYS, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER FOR AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL - HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, TOTALS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM 1 - 6 INCHES NEAR SEA LEVEL, WITH MORE POSSIBLE FOR
THE CHILKAT PENINSULA. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW FOR THE CITY
OF SKAGWAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT ANY TOTALS WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN THOSE FOR DOWNTOWN HAINES. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, AND UPDATES MADE AS THE LOW'S FINAL TRACK BECOMES MORE
SET IN STONE.
LONG TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE AS WE SEE A LOW
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT CONTINUES TO SEND WAVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED WET AND
BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE COLDER AIR IN THE YUKON AND THE LOW REMAINING
AWAY FROM THE COAST, WE EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN WHICH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. WITH THIS
RETURN OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND, ACCUMULATIONS DON'T LOOK TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE MORE
ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE
FINALLY START TO SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE YUKON AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
JUNEAU AND WHITEHORSE TIGHTENS. THIS WILL START TO INCREASE THE
WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE TERRAIN LEADING TO INCREASED OUTFLOW
WINDS. ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW. CPC OUTLOOKS FOR 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 6-10 DAYS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR 8-14 DAYS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 5000FT AND VISBYS 3 TO P6SM AS FIRST OF TWO
SYSTEMS PUSH ACROSS SEAK. BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH TRENDS REMAINING MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND YET ANOTHER ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 10 TO 20KTS, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS, STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING NEAR PAKT FOR S PANHANDLE,
NEAR PAHN AND PAGY FOR N PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MOVING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF, PREDOMINATE MVFR TO IFR WITH WINDS INCREASING FOR PAKT,
PAKW, PASI AFTER 09Z.
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND SE-LY LLWS
FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TAF SITES INCREASING AFTER,
WITH MAXIMA AFTER 09Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS
BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000FT FOR PASI, PAKW, PAKT. TAF SITES FURTHER
NORTH SHOULD STILL EXPECT LLWS VALUES UP TO 30KTS, POTENTIALLY
HIGHER AS THE FRONT SWINGS NORTH AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE
BARANOF ISLAND NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
WEDNESDAY MORNING DAWNS WITH SOUTHEAST FRESH SEAS MASKING
UNDERLYING WESTERLY GROUND SWELL, BRINGING A CONFUSED SEA STATE
AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 15 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STORM
FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE, DRIVING 35 TO 40 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY. WIND AND SEAS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY RAMP UP AHEAD
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH NEAR- GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL AND MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES FOR MAJOR NORTH- SOUTH CHANNELS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL, WE WILL SEE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL, WITH NEAR-
GALES IMPACTING OTHER MAJOR PASSAGES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BRIEFLY THROUGH THE
INSIDE BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING BACK UP TO NEAR GALE, TO GALE FORCE,
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REGION, LIKELY BRINGING
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AND FREEZING SPRAY TO LYNN CANAL AND TAKU
INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST
THURSDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY
FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ320>322-324-
325.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ323-
326>330-332.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-641-642-661-662.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-031-032-034-643-644-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-022-053-651-652-672.
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