150
FXAK67 PAJK 120713
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1013 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE STORM FORCE LOW IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. STRONG GUSTS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND CONSIDERED BUMPING
UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND SITKA, BUT HELD OFF AS THEY LOOK TO STAY BELOW CRITERIA OF
50KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK PUSH IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE STORM FORCE LOW APPROACHES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR HAINES, SKAGWAY AND THE NORTHERN
HIGHWAYS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS MARINE STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE OUTER COAST FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SNOW POTENTIAL.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON HAINES HIGHWAY, INCLUDING
AREAS LIKE KLUKWAN.
- MULTIPLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHEST WINDS FROM SITKA TO KAKE AND
SOUTHWARD.
- POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
THE UPCOMING STORM FORCE WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WARM CORE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE SYSTEM BY THIS
EVENING, TRANSITIONING A BULK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE ALONG
THE FRONT RATHER THAN THE LOW CENTER. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE ALONG THE FRONT ON ARRIVAL, THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER
IS STILL IMPORTANT IN DICTATING WHERE THE FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE. AT
THIS TIME, IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE IN NEAR LISIANSKI STRAIT AND INLET, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS BETWEEN SITKA AND DIXON ENTRANCE. THE OCCLUDED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING OUT TO THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND CAPE
DECISION, WITH A STRONG BAROCLINICITY. WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT GOING OVER HIGH TERRAIN,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
IN FREDERICK SOUND AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE.
WHILE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST, THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
AND COULD RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER WINDS IN KAKE, PETERSBURG,
FREDERICK SOUND, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
FURTHERMORE, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRIPLE POINT, LOOKS TO YIELD CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES IN AND AROUND THE PRINCE OF WALES AREA FOR 12+ HOURS.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WSW FLOW LOOK TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO TWO SEPARATE SCENARIOS: ONE IN WHICH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS, AND THE
DRIER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
LONG TERM
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING LOW REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN GULF
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MIXED IN.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON AND
INTERIOR ALASKA BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CANADA AND THE
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS INCREASING GRADIENT, WINDS OUT OF GAPS IN
TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START TO DECREASE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE MOVING
INTO OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AS WELL AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW. THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST RETURN OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SINCE WE MOVED OUT OF
THE COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN IN JANUARY. RIGHT NOW, ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND A COUPLE INCHES FOR MOST
PLACES. BUT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE AT ELEVATION COULD OF COURSE
SEE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK,
WE LOOK TO CONTINUE TO THE COLD TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SNOW EXPECTED
FOR PAHN AND PAGY. A LOWER CHANCE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PAYA.
EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VIS
AND ESPECIALLY CIGS BECOMING MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR. REDUCED
VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
LOW MOVES ONSHORE. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING
15-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-50+KT, STRONGEST FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
LLWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH WINDS 2KFT ALOFT BECOMING 30-40KT
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND 45-60KT FOR PASI AND DOWN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
A DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF,
BRINGING STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST
AND WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE INSIDE. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW. MAKE READY FOR STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF ALONG THE CHICHAGOF, BARANOF, OR PRINCE OF
WALES COAST LARGE SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 30 TO
40 FT.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ONE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CANADA, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DIMINISH FROM THEIR OVERNIGHT PEAKS.
SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST ENERGY, WITH MULTIPLE WAVE
SYSTEMS BRINGING A COMBINED PERIOD NEAR 7 TO 10 SECONDS AND
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON A DEVELOPING HURRICANE FORCE LOW, AT 52N 150W AS
OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL QUICKLY MARCH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GULF OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR
974MB. ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
45 KNOTS, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZED. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS A DEEP MIXED LAYER,
ALLOWING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BRINGING
FREQUENT GUSTS OF VIOLENT STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE. THESE
WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 35 FT.
RIGHT NOW, CURRENT FORECAST CONSENSUS IS THAT LISIANSKI STRAIT
SOUTH TO PRINCE OF WALES WILL GET HIT THE HARDEST, WITH DAMAGING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT A PRIME DIRECTION TO MOVE UP SITKA SOUND.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STORM TRACK. IF THE STORM SHIFTS SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS FOR SITKA.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE SLOWLY RESPONDING ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS AS A STORM FORCE LOW APPROACHES, WITH GALES BEING
MAINTAINED IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY
INNER PASSAGES BY 3AM THURSDAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL,
WHERE WE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES FOR AREAS NORTH OF VANDERBILT REEF. WE APPROACH WITH
CAUTION AS AREAS SOUTH OF PT. RETREAT AND DOUGLAS ARE LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN EASTERLY NEAR-GALE TO TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. WIND AND
SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING BETTER CONDITIONS UNTIL
OUTFLOW BEGINS SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ320>322-324-
325.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ323-
326>330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-641-642-661>663.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-643-644-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-053-651-652-672.
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
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