918
FXAK67 PAJK 121751
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
851 AM AKST THU FEB 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE AFTER 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DEEP LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF HAS STRONG SW FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WIND IS A MAIN
HAZARD FEATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1500
TO 3000 FEET IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY, WHILE PRECIP IS ADDING
SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS, MOST ARE ABOVE 3 MILES. ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON STRONGER CONVECTION PRIMARILY WESTERN PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND ( COOLER AIR ALOFT, WARMER WATER BELOW LEADING TO
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY, THEN ADDING IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER
TERRAIN TO ASSIST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ) THIS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT, WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
SITUATION.
MARINE UPDATE:
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
THURSDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS ALONG OUR COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FOCUSED FROM
CAPE OMMANEY SOUTH TOWARD DIXON. GIVEN SATELLITE WIND PASSES, ABLE
TO NARROW DOWN THE 35 FT SEAS, LIKELY AIMED TOWARD BARANOF COAST
AND NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES COAST. ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST,
BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM 46082 AND 46083 REPORTED SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ABOUT 10 TO 15 FT LOWER THAN FORECASTED, WHICH WAS A
DIRECT RESULT OF A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE STORM FORCE LOW;
FORECAST WAS UPDATED AT 0800 THURSDAY TO REFLECT THIS SHIFT.
HOWEVER, ONE ITEM OF NOTE WAS PROMINENT WSW SWELL AT 17 SECONDS,
MASKED BY THE FRESH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STRONG LOW. MOVING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALONG
OUR COAST. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW THAT WILL TAKE A SOUTHEAST
TRANSIT ALONG OUR COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SEAS INCREASING. MARINERS
WISHING TO TRANSIT FROM CROSS SOUND TO CAPE ST. ELIAS WILL SEE
WINDS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT IF THEY FAVOR
THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE INSIDE THIS MORNING MORE OR LESS AGREED
WITH YESTERDAY’S THOUGHTS: N WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IN
LYNN CANAL, WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. A FEW OBSERVATIONS IN
CLARENCE STRAIT WERE REPORTING SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 53 KNOTS AS OF
0800 THURSDAY. MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE, DRIVING STRONG GALES
WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PASSAGES. STEPHENS PASSAGE LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTENSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW HOURS OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS STARTING
NEAR 1 TO 2 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGINS SUNDAY,
WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 559 AM FEB 12
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS MARITIME STORM WARNINGS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
OUTER COAST FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR SNOW POTENTIAL.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON HAINES HIGHWAY, INCLUDING
AREAS LIKE KLUKWAN.
- MULTIPLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM SITKA TO KAKE.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NEAR PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS.
- WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM...
THE STORM FORCE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING BARANOF ISLAND AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING. AN OCCLUDING
FRONT HAS BEEN ADVANCING THROUGH SE AK OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SNOW FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND RAIN FOR
EVERYONE ELSE. WHILE THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL FRONT WILL DEPART THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE LANDFALLING LOW ITSELF WILL
BRING WITH IT A SECOND WRAP LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EMBEDDED ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE SECOND WRAP, A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE LOW WILL BRING
WITH IT AN ADDITIONAL SPIKE IN WINDS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ANGOON. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND,
ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT THEMSELVES FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND THE VICINITY OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
BY FRIDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW FADES AWAY, AND BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN AS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
START TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH A WEAKENING LOW REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BUT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MIXED IN. GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON AND INTERIOR ALASKA
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHIFT WILL STRENGTHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CANADA AND THE PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
INCREASING GRADIENT, WINDS OUT OF GAPS IN TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
START TO DECREASE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE
MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AS WELL AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW. THIS
WOULD BE THE FIRST RETURN OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SINCE
WE MOVED OUT OF THE COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN IN JANUARY. RIGHT NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND A COUPLE
INCHES FOR MOST PLACES. BUT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE AT ELEVATION
COULD OF COURSE SEE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, WE LOOK TO CONTINUE TO THE COLD TREND WITH NEAR
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
PREDOMINATE MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 4000FT AND VISBYS 3 TO P6SM AS THE SECOND OF
TWO SYSTEMS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS PUSHES ACROSS SEAK. MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND SE- LY
LLWS FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TAF SITES INCREASING
AFTER, WITH MAXIMA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 40 TO 60 KTS
BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000FT FOR PASI, PAKW, PAKT, DECREASING FURTHER
MOVING NORTHWARD AND INLAND AROUND 30 KTS NEAR JUNEAU. OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, PREDOMINATE
MVFR TO VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
MOVING ON-SHORE, CIGS REMAIN AOB 5000FT. POST-FRONT, ADDED PROB30
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR PAKW FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
A DANGEROUS STORM FORCE LOW RACING INTO SE AK WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST AND
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE INSIDE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED SEAS ARE PRESENT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF SITKA SOUND. ACCOMPANYING THEM ARE FREQUENT GUSTS
OF VIOLENT STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING SEAS OF UP TO 35 FT, WITH THE HIGHER SEAS IN THE MORE
SOUTHERLY OUTER COASTAL AREAS.
RIGHT NOW, CURRENT FORECAST CONSENSUS IS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF
LISIANSKI INLET WILL BE HARDEST HIT. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND, AND FRIDAY WILL DAWN WITH SEAS OF
BETWEEN 9-14 FT, WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS A STORM
FORCE LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THURSDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY
INNER PASSAGES, AND STORM FORCE CONDITIONS FOR SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL, WHERE
WE WILL HOLD ON TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
FOR AREAS NORTH OF VANDERBILT REEF. WE APPROACH WITH CAUTION AS
AREAS SOUTH OF PT. RETREAT AND DOUGLAS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
EASTERLY NEAR- GALE TO TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. WIND AND SEAS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING BETTER CONDITIONS UNTIL OUTFLOW
BEGINS STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ320>322-324-
325.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ323-
326>330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-641-642-661>663.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-643-644-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-053-651-652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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