317
FXAK67 PAJK 122355
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE PANHANDLE.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NEAR PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS.
- WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR START OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUTFLOW
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A PLETHORA OF WEATHER HAZARDS: SNOW
IN THE NORTH, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS FROM GUSTY WINDS/LARGE
SEAS, AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOUCHING ON SNOW, CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS
ON TO SNOW FOR FEW MORE HOURS TONIGHT IN THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO INTO THE HAINES AREA. FOR AREAS SOUTH,
INSTABILITY IS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH REPORTING SMALL
HAIL. THIS THREAT IS LIKELY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH
STORMS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE WIND AND RAIN STARTS
DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR WINDS, THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WERE THE PEAK CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH MANY SITES REPORTING GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH.
STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL SEE HEAVY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FIRST THING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAIL. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS AND PRECIP
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH, BRINGING A SHORT BREAK BEFORE SOME SNOW
AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN.
AS WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING FOG BECOMES THE PRIMARY THREAT,
WITH CONSIDERATION FOR FREEZING FOG ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.
LONG TERM
TWO AREAS OF INTEREST GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST BEING A FAST MOVING "CLIPPER" SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE SECOND BEING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE PANHANDLE FINALLY BACK INTO COLD
TEMPERATURES.
ULTIMATELY, BOTH AREAS OF INTEREST ARE CAUSED BY THE SAME PHENOMENA,
A BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALASKA, WHICH, IN TURN, DIGS A
TROUGH DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO HAIDA GWAII.
THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO SPIN UP A LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, PASSING SOUTH ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY PLAY OUT, PARTICULARLY WHEN AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS INVOLVED. A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, ROUGHLY 70%
CHANCE, INDICATE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION, AS LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AND IT MOVES TOO QUICKLY SOUTH FOR ANY ONE AREA TO RECEIVE
TOO MUCH; HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION, STAGNATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM INITIAL RAIN TO ALL SNOW. FROM THE FASTER SOLUTION,
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 2 INCHES;
HOWEVER, WITH THE SLOWER, LESS LIKELY SOLUTION, COULD SEE UP TO 5
INCHES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THIS, BY MONDAY, A STOUT INVERSION IN CANADA, ENHANCED FROM
THE SHARP RIDGE AND NW FLOW ALOFT, LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG
KATABATIC FLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 8-9 MB, WITH
LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG GALES. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS BASED ON
SIMILAR HISTORICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THIS CHANNEL. EXPECTING TO
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ARMS OF GLACIER BAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE NEAR GALES TO GALES EXTENDING DOWN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
CHATHAM STRAIT AS WELL. COMBINED WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS, LOOKING
TO SEE AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS IN ALL
AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELS.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON / FRONTAL BAND PUSHING
THROUGH, WITH LANDFALLING LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. MOSTLY
CLEAR NEAR YAKUTAT IN THE DRY SLOT WILL COLLAPSE ARE PRECIP BAND
MOVE INTO AND OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN/SNOW AND CEILING
BELOW 3000 FT NORTHERN PANHANDLE WINDS MAIN ISSUES THIS EVENING
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTH CENTRAL, GUSTY WINDS LEADING
TO LLWS ISSUES THROUGH THE EVENINGS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED
FRIDAY WITH LESS INTENSE TURBULENCE. WINDS FOR THE FAR SOUTH HAVE
START LIGHTENING AS WELL AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHTED STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
ALONG OUR COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FOCUSED NEAR CAPE OMMANEY.
GIVEN SATELLITE WIND PASSES, ABLE TO NARROW DOWN THE 35 FT SEAS,
LIKELY AIMED TOWARD CHATHAM AND SUMNER OCEAN ENTRANCES. ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM 46082 AND 46083 REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 10 TO 12 FT. HOWEVER, ONE ITEM OF
NOTE WAS PROMINENT WSW SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS, MASKED BY THE
FRESH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STRONG LOW. MOVING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALONG OUR COAST. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW THAT WILL TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRANSIT ALONG OUR
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF AND FRESH SEAS INCREASING. MARINERS WISHING TO
TRANSIT FROM CROSS SOUND TO CAPE ST. ELIAS WILL SEE WINDS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT IF THEY FAVOR THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, DRIVING GALE TO STORM FORCE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PASSAGES. STEPHENS PASSAGE LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTENSE,
WITH A FEW HOURS OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE,
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. AS THESE WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY, DENSE
FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGINS, WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ318.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ321-323-324.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325>330-
332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ031-033-035-641-642-661-662.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ032-034-036-663.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-053-643-644-651-652-
664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...AP
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