746
FXAK67 PAJK 131800 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
900 AM AKST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPDATE
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DECAYING REMNANT LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS STILL TREKKING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE; AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OCCASIONALLY FLIPPING
PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD, CIGS
AND VIS ARE BRIEFLY BEING IMPACTED. FOG HAS LIKEWISE POPPED UP IN
A FEW AREAS WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE CHANCES OF FOG EMERGE ONCE MORE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG
FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SITES WHERE FOG DEVELOPS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 632 AM FEB 13
SYNOPSIS
- WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO SE AK SATURDAY.
- OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWS FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN SE
AK.
SHORT TERM
AREAS OF INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU
AREAS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH OUT THE DAY BECOMING
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING. TIMES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SHOWERS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS
MAINLY REMAINED RAIN, EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS. ONE OF THESE AREAS
INCLUDES IN THE JUNEAU VALLEY WHERE WE HAVE MEASURED AROUND 0.5
INCHES OF SNOW OVER NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, UNTIL
TEMPERATURES INCREASE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVING
US A SLIGHT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER, ALONG
WITH WEAK WINDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIALLY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS NOT
SUPER HIGH ON SEEING THICK FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS
LONG TERM
TWO AREAS OF INTEREST GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST BEING A FAST MOVING "CLIPPER" SYSTEM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND BEING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE PANHANDLE FINALLY BACK
INTO COLD TEMPERATURES.
ULTIMATELY, BOTH AREAS OF INTEREST ARE CAUSED BY THE SAME PHENOMENA,
A BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALASKA, WHICH, IN TURN, DIGS A
TROUGH DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO HAIDA GWAII.
THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO SPIN UP A LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, PASSING SOUTH ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY PLAY OUT, PARTICULARLY WHEN AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS INVOLVED. A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, ROUGHLY 70%
CHANCE, INDICATE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION, AS LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AND IT MOVES TOO QUICKLY SOUTH FOR ANY ONE AREA TO RECEIVE
TOO MUCH; HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION, STAGNATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM INITIAL RAIN TO ALL SNOW. FROM THE FASTER SOLUTION,
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 2 INCHES;
HOWEVER, WITH THE SLOWER, LESS LIKELY SOLUTION, COULD SEE UP TO 5
INCHES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THIS, BY MONDAY, A STOUT INVERSION IN CANADA, ENHANCED FROM
THE SHARP RIDGE AND NW FLOW ALOFT, LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG
KATABATIC FLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 8-9 MB, WITH
LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG GALES. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS BASED ON
SIMILAR HISTORICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THIS CHANNEL. EXPECTING TO
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ARMS OF GLACIER BAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE NEAR GALES TO GALES EXTENDING DOWN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
CHATHAM STRAIT AS WELL. COMBINED WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS, LOOKING
TO SEE AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS IN ALL
AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
LARGELY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING AS WEAKENING LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND NE OVER
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. GENERAL MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ONGOING FROM SITKA EASTWARD TO PETERSBURG AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS
YAKUTAT AND SKAGWAY WITH CIGS AOB 6000FT AND VISBYS RANGING 3 TO
P6SM. FURTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY CLEARER SKIES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
BUT HAS LEAD TO LOW IFR TO LIFR DECK AOB 700FT FOR WRANGELL,
KETCHIKAN, AND KLAWOCK. MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES TO MVFR BY 18Z,
PREVAILING WIDESPREAD VFR BY 00Z TP 03Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING, AROUND 10 TO 20KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
REACHING 30KTS AT SKAGWAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, REACHING WIDESPREAD 10KTS OR LESS BY 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON, NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NO MAJOR LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS LOW TRACKS INLAND,
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY W TO SW-LY 20 TO 30KTS ON
THE HIGH END EARLY THIS MORNING, RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH 18Z.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE AND NEAR POINT
COUVERDEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EVEN WITH THESE AREAS OF CONTINUED STRONGER WINDS,
OVERALL WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. AS THESE WINDS DECREASE
FRIDAY, FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND, AND TO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGINS. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY OVER LYNN CANAL. ALONG WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TO DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INSIDE WATERS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A LOW TRACKS INLAND
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. OVERALL QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DISSIPATES INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BROAD W-LY ON-SHORE FLOW WILL TURN NW-LY AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW
PACIFIC. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRANSIT ALONG OUR NORTHERN
GULF COAST, BRINGING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF AND FRESH SEAS INCREASING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, DEPARTING SE OUT OF
THE PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE PNW BY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG OFF-
SHORE/OUTFLOW CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS
LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY, DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER
VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAB/NM
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