361
FXAK67 PAJK 140003
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT , WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO SE AK SATURDAY.
- OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWS FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN SE
AK.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / THE REMAINS OF THURSDAYS
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ENDING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FORM SO
WITH THINK PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE INNER CHANNELS. A SHORT WAVE RUNNING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL FORM A
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL THEN QUICKLY START TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ONE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE PANHANDLE FINALLY BACK INTO COLD
TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND THIS, BY MONDAY, A STOUT INVERSION IN CANADA, ENHANCED FROM
THE SHARP RIDGE AND NW FLOW ALOFT, LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG
KATABATIC FLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERALL MESSAGE GOING FORWARD FOR THE MONDAY TIME RANGE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY LOOK TO BE AROUND
8-9 MB, WITH LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BRING FORTH UP TO
GALES. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE
WINDS BASED ON SIMILAR HISTORICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THIS
CHANNEL. EXPECTING TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ARMS OF
GLACIER BAY. SIMILARLY, GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND KETCHIKAN
LOOK TO SUPPORT UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS DOWN STEPHENS PASSAGE.
COUPLE OF CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST: HOW FAST AND STRONG ARE THE
COLD TEMPERATURES GOING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD, AND HOW LONG WILL THE
STRONGER WINDS STICK AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, NOT
LOOKING TO SEE COLD TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MODERATE OR
GREATER FREEZING SPRAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. THEN, EXPECTING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE DAY, MAKING THE MOST PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING TO SEE FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF POINT COUVERDEN.
BEYOND MONDAY, THINGS GET A TAD MORE COMPLICATED. AT THIS POINT,
THERE IS AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO MODERATE,
IN PART DUE TO A FLATTER RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER, IT WOULD RELAX WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
EVEN BY UP TO 10 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY, SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SO COLD AT THIS POINT, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY, EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE, MAINLY REPRESENTED IN THE
GEFS, FOR A DOMINANT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE, AND BRINGING DOWN THE MODERATE OR GREATER
FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES MUCH FURTHER DOWN THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANT ACROSS MOST OF SE AK AS
SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT LOW. WHILE
SHOWERS WILL LARGELY DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY OVERNIGHT, EXPECT STRATUS
AND LOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS AND THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS, INCLUDING THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN HIT OR
MISS IFR CONDITIONS. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING, THOUGH THE
OUTLIER CHANCE THAT FOG MAY LAST LONGER AROUND THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR DOES EXIST. ANTICIPATE MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE GENERALLY FOR SATURDAY,
WITH LOWER CIGS AREAS AROUND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AS THESE WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, AND TO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGINS. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY OVER LYNN CANAL. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, DECREASING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN INSIDE WATERS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): BROAD W-LY ON-SHORE FLOW WILL
TURN NW-LY AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SOUTHEAST
TRANSIT ALONG OUR NORTHERN GULF COAST, BRINGING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND FRESH SEAS INCREASING AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM,
DEPARTING SE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG OFF- SHORE/OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS TRANSITING
ALONG THE N GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT
BAY, DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS
RIVER VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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