314
FXAK67 PAJK 141741
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
841 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 642 AM AKST SAT FEB 14
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO SE AK SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
- OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWS FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- THE OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BRING STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN SE AK.
THESE STRONG WINDS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF
CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG. THE ONLY
AREA THAT HAS ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS IS NEAR CAPE SPENCER WITH
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUING THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE NE GULF, EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SE AK.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH, TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS OUTFLOW BEGINS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL POTIONS OF SE AK TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER A
24 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE CHARACTER OF THIS SNOW WILL BE MORE WET IN
NATURE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN DROP AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING AND NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
ONE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
MONDAY, BRINGING THE PANHANDLE FINALLY BACK INTO COLD
TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND THIS, BY MONDAY, A STOUT INVERSION IN CANADA, ENHANCED
FROM THE SHARP RIDGE AND NW FLOW ALOFT, LOOK TO BRING FORTH STRONG
KATABATIC FLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERALL MESSAGE GOING FORWARD FOR THE MONDAY TIME RANGE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY LOOK TO BE AROUND
8-9 MB, WITH LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCES LOOK TO BRING FORTH UP TO
GALES. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE
WINDS BASED ON SIMILAR HISTORICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THIS
CHANNEL. EXPECTING TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ARMS OF
GLACIER BAY. SIMILARLY, GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND KETCHIKAN
LOOK TO SUPPORT UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS DOWN STEPHENS PASSAGE.
COUPLE OF CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST: HOW FAST AND STRONG ARE THE
COLD TEMPERATURES GOING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD, AND HOW LONG WILL THE
STRONGER WINDS STICK AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, NOT
LOOKING TO SEE COLD TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MODERATE OR
GREATER FREEZING SPRAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. THEN, EXPECTING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE DAY, MAKING THE MOST PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING TO SEE FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF POINT COUVERDEN.
BEYOND MONDAY, THINGS GET A TAD MORE COMPLICATED. AT THIS POINT,
THERE IS AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO MODERATE,
IN PART DUE TO A FLATTER RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER, IT WOULD RELAX WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN
BY UP TO 10 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY, SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SO COLD AT THIS POINT, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY, EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE, MAINLY REPRESENTED IN THE
GEFS, FOR A DOMINANT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE, AND BRINGING DOWN THE MODERATE OR GREATER
FREEZING SPRAY CHANCES MUCH FURTHER DOWN THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/ PREDOMINATE MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS ONGOING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, CIGS GENERALLY AOB 4500FT AS UPPER LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN ALOFT FROM STOUT HIGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, PATCHY DENSE
FOG NEAR THE STIKINE DELTA NORTHWARD TO PAPG LIFTED TO LOW
STRATUS AROUND 500 TO 1500FT WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OVER THE
PANHANDLE 3SM OR GREATER BUT HAS NOW RETURNED WITH LESS THAN 1/4
SM VIS. MOVING INTO SATURDAY, PRECIPTIATION BECOMES MORE ISOLATED
AND SHOWERY IN NATURE, IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH PREDOMINATE
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF VFR THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE STARTING WITH PAYA AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
PUSHES SNOWFALL ACROSS THE N GULF AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
REACHING PAJN THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE
APPROACHING LOW, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH LLWS IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN, AROUND 12KTS OR LESS.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AS BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF,
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE INSIDE WATERS. THESE LIGHTER
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1 NAUTICAL MILE IN SOME
ISOLATED AREAS. THE ONE AREA THAT IS SEEING SOME STRONGER WINDS IS
NEAR CAPE SPENCER WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE NE GULF, EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AND GREATLY INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THE
SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON STARTING WHAT WILL BE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS MOST LIKELY OVER LYNN CANAL ON MONDAY. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING SPRAY TO
DEVELOP.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF
ALLOWING FOR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NE GULF MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL IS VERY LIKELY TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM,
DEPARTING SE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW
MOVES SOUTHWARD, STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
BECAUSE OF THIS OUTFLOW, MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS OUT OF
OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY, DISENCHANTMENT
BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM/SF
MARINE...EAB
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