014
FXAK67 PAJK 150632 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
932 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO SE AK SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
- OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWS FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- THE OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BRING STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN SE AK.
THESE STRONG WINDS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING
OVER THEN NORTHERN GULF, BEFORE STARTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE NE GULF, AND
THEN WILL SPREAD RAIN/SNOW INTO THE NE GULF COAST AREA, THEN TO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION THEN MOVING
SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW DOES. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LOOK TO BE UP TO
ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES. RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE GOING TO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN STARTS TO SET UP A MOUNTAIN WIND EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE JUNEAU AREA, WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH MAY
BE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. SO A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.
LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEK THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO
TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY MONDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE,
FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS
SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE.
FOR NOW, THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
IN LYNN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY RELAX
THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MID-WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
WINDS DIMINISHING TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, PERHAPS EVEN AS
LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS CATCH YOU OFF
GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST GALES SOMETIME BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH-
SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY BECOMES
A THREAT MONDAY, WITH FREEZING SPRAY PUMPING THROUGH THE INSIDE
ALL WEEK. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, FOUR
CORNERS AREA, STIKINE INLET, AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING MUCH COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY.
AVIATION...PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE NW THIS EVENING WITH RAIN (SOME SNOW AT YAKUTAT, AND A
POSSIBLE MIX AT SKAGWAY) OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS PETERSBURG AND
KLAWOCK AS OF 9 PM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN RULE SO FAR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY DUE TO CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 1500
FT AT TIMES (THOUGH YAKUTAT HAS SEEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH
LOW VIS AND CEILINGS FROM SNOW). THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
PRECIP CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE POSSIBLY SEEING THE RAIN CHANGE TO
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH AREAS THAT DO TURN TO SNOW MAY SEE MORE
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS. INTO SUNDAY
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS (TAKINGS ITS PRECIP WITH IT) AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS START
UP. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
START BLOWING THROUGH THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG
THE OUTER COAST COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS BLOWING OVER RIDGE LINES FROM THE NORTH WHILE SEA
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY BLOCKED. TURBULENCE MIGHT ALSO START
BECOMING A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS OUTFLOW WINDS START
UP. EXPECT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AT LEAST.
MARINE...INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): FOR MOST PART SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE STARTING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS UP TO 15 KT. GUSTY WINDS
STARTING NEAR SKAGWAY AND THE WESTERLY WIND INTO CROSS SOUND AND
NEAR CAPE DECISION. BRIEF INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE MOVE MORE INTO
THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, AS IT DIVES SOUTH, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN SO
WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CONTINUED OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS TO
FORM IN THE LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM STRAIT, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MORE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE COAST. AS THE MOVES SOUTHEAST, THE WEST FLOW NEAR THE COAST
COAST, SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, AND THEN TO THE NW, AND
INCREASING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED NNW
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF TO A BRISK FLOW OF 25
TO 35 KT SUNDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP/STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...BEZENEK
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