953
FXAK67 PAJK 151513
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
613 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS SW OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. A
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS OF WRITING THIS, IT IS CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL SE AK ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SE, WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL BECOME MAINLY NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY.
AT THAT TIME OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED INSIDE WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS ADJUSTING THE TIMING ON WHEN WINDS START TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE TIMING WAS BROUGHT UP TO
SHOW STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES BEGINNING THIS MORNING OVER LYNN
CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THESE THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING GALE FORCE (34 TO 40
KTS) TONIGHT. FOR LAND WINDS, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
PRONE GAP WIND LOCATIONS; OVER SKAGWAY, THROUGH TAKU INLET INTO
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN. LAND WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG WING GUSTS
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS SE AK. PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED MAINLY LIGHT WITH ESTIMATED
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 3 INCHES OVER THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND MEASURED
SNOW AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1 INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE IN THE JUNEAU
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY AREAS, NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND
COOLER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS SE AK.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVER THE WEEK THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO
TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY MONDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE,
FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS
SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE.
FOR NOW, THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
IN LYNN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY RELAX
THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MID-WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
WINDS DIMINISHING TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, PERHAPS EVEN AS
LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS CATCH YOU OFF
GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST GALES SOMETIME BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH-
SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY
BECOMES A THREAT MONDAY, WITH FREEZING SPRAY PUMPING THROUGH THE
INSIDE ALL WEEK. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA
INLET, FOUR CORNERS AREA, STIKINE INLET, AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING MUCH COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
GRADIENT OF VFR/MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT FROM
YAKUTAT W TO E TOWARDS KETCHIKAN AS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CLIPS
ACROSS THE N GULF AND ALONG THE SEAK COASTAL PANHANDLE TOWARDS N
PAC. GENERAL MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TAF SITES SOUTHWARD TO KETCHIKAN
WITH CIGS AOB 2500 FT AND VISBYS 2 TO 5 SM. THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NW TO
SW, WITH PAYA ALREADY SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR. HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD SEE AN END TO PRECIPITATION
AND LOWERED CEILINGS/VISBYS SHORTLY WITH PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS TREND WILL THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SE- WARD OUT OF THE AREA,
REACHING JUNEAU BY 18 TO 21Z, SITKA EASTWARD TO PETERSBURG BY
00Z, WITH KETCHIKAN HOLDING OUT LONGEST TIL AROUND 03Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND VISBYS PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONG WINDS EXCEPTED
WITHIN THE N/S INNER CHANNELS OF SEAK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
MOVING INTO EARLY WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED TO OCCASIONAL LLWS AROUND
2KFT DUE TO PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT, AS HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE ALASKA AVIATION WEATHER UNIT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AROUND CENTRAL SE AK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS (34 TO 47 KTS) WILL SPREAD ACROSS GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST
WELL INTO THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING SPRAY TO
DEVELOP. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BY TOMORROW.
AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF LYNN
CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS VERY LIKELY TO BE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, DEPARTING SE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THIS OUTFLOW, MARINERS TRANSITING
ALONG THE N GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT
BAY, DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER
VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031-641-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>034-036-053-642>644-651-
652-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP/STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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