816
FXAK67 PAJK 151759
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
859 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS SW OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. A
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. AS OF WRITING THIS, IT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SE
AK ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SE, WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WILL BECOME MAINLY NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY. AT THAT
TIME OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED INSIDE WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS ADJUSTING THE TIMING ON WHEN WINDS START
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE TIMING WAS BROUGHT
UP TO SHOW STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES BEGINNING THIS MORNING
OVER LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THESE THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING GALE
FORCE (34 TO 40 KTS) TONIGHT. FOR LAND WINDS, THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF PRONE GAP WIND LOCATIONS; OVER SKAGWAY, THROUGH
TAKU INLET INTO DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AND OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER
BASIN. LAND WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH STRONG WING GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS SE AK. PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED MAINLY LIGHT WITH
ESTIMATED ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 3 INCHES OVER THE HAINES HIGHWAY
AND MEASURED SNOW AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1 INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE IN
THE JUNEAU VALLEY. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY
AREAS, NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS SE AK.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVER THE WEEK THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO
TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY MONDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE,
FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS
SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE.
FOR NOW, THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
IN LYNN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY RELAX
THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MID-WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
WINDS DIMINISHING TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, PERHAPS EVEN AS
LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS CATCH YOU OFF
GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST GALES SOMETIME BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH-
SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY
BECOMES A THREAT MONDAY, WITH FREEZING SPRAY PUMPING THROUGH THE
INSIDE ALL WEEK. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA
INLET, FOUR CORNERS AREA, STIKINE INLET, AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING
MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AROUND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
NORTH AS CIGS RISE AND VIS CLEARS OUT WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SITES BELOW THE CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHWARD TO KETCHIKAN ARE LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 2500 FT AND
VISBYS 2 TO 5 SM. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NW TO SW. AN ESTIMATE ON TIMING AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE PANHANDLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS
REACHING JUNEAU VERY SHORTLY, THEN FROM SITKA EASTWARD TO
PETERSBURG BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH KETCHIKAN HOLDING
OUT LONGEST TIL AROUND LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS
THE FRONTAL BAND PASSES OVER, THESE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE VIS DROP QUICKLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE MIXING WITH RAIN OR AT LEAST VERY WET.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR
SITES THAT TYPICALLY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A N TO NE WIND, ESPECIALLY
SKAGWAY.
BY MID SUNDAY EVENING, OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE N/S INNER CHANNELS OF SEAK. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN MOVING INTO EARLY WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED TO
OCCASIONAL LLWS AROUND 2KFT DUE TO PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ALASKA AVIATION WEATHER UNIT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AROUND CENTRAL SE AK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING INCREASED NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW
MOVES SOUTHWARD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KTS) WILL SPREAD ACROSS GLACIER BAY, LYNN
CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES. ALONG WITH
THESE STRONG WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR
FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BY TOMORROW. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, DEPARTING SE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THIS OUTFLOW, MARINERS TRANSITING
ALONG THE N GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT
BAY, DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS
RIVER VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031-641-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>034-036-053-642>644-651-
652-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP/STJ
AVIATION...ZTK/NM
MARINE...EAB
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