591
FXAK67 PAJK 160023
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS SW OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / LOW MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS. CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM THE NW
TO THE SE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE OUTFLOW GRADIENT
STARTING TO INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU REGION WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE FEATURE AND ALSO IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ( WIND CHILL ) DROPPING
BELOW ZERO ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO THE MINUS TEENS TO 20S
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVER THE WEEK THE PRIMARY
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY, AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON
WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY MONDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE, FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS EBBING AND
FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON
MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE. FOR NOW, THE PUBLISHED
FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN LYNN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY RELAX THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT MID-WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WINDS
DIMINISHING TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, PERHAPS EVEN AS LOW AS
STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST GALES SOMETIME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH- SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY BECOMES A
THREAT MONDAY, WITH FREEZING SPRAY PUMPING THROUGH THE INSIDE ALL
WEEK. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, FOUR
CORNERS AREA, STIKINE INLET, AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING
MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS IN THE PANHANDLE
ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING THE PREVIOUS
FRONT FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. MANY AREAS ARE SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OR A VERY THIN,
HIGH CLOUD LAYER WITH BLUE SKIES PEEKING THROUGH. SKAGWAY AND
HAINES ARE STILL SEEING THE OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 20 KTS, BUT
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, THE FRONTAL BAND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS PETERSBURG AND KAKE, HAVING JUST MOVED SOUTH OF
SITKA. FOR THESE AREAS AND SOUTH, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONTAL BAND IS BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN, BUT SOME
AREAS INCLUDING PETERSBURG HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN AND EVEN
TAKING OVER FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS MIXING PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE
LOWERED VIS AND CIGS AOB 2000 FT BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE
WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY CLEAR OUT. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 20 TO
30 KTS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SITES NEAR
THE WATER ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS WILL MAINLY FEEL THE EFFECT OF
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH MANY OF THEM ALSO SEEING LLWS, MAINLY
SPEED SHEAR, FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 30 KTS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WE ARE ALREADY SEEING INCREASED
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS LYNN CANAL THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS (34 TO 47 KTS) WILL SPREAD ACROSS GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES. ALONG WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TO DEVELOP. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
TODAY WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
BY TOMORROW. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK NEEDING TO REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG
WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY,
DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER
VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-641-643-661>663.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-642-644-651-652-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP/STJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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