326
FXAK67 PAJK 160530 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
830 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION AND AVIATION SECTION FOR
06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS SW OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / LOW MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS. CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM THE NW
TO THE SE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE OUTFLOW GRADIENT
STARTING TO INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU REGION WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE FEATURE AND ALSO IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ( WIND CHILL ) DROPPING
BELOW ZERO ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO THE MINUS TEENS TO 20S
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...OVER THE WEEK THE
PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY,
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON
WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE, FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS
EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS SERIOUS
IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE. FOR NOW,
THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN LYNN
INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RELAX THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WINDS
DIMINISHING AS LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS
CATCH YOU OFF GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST
GALES SOMETIME BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH- SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY BECOMES A THREAT FOR
MOST INNER CHANNELS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATE WEEK. HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, STIKINE INLET,
AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING
MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY
SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO CLEAR OUT THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS REACHING SUMNER
STRAIT AS OF 8PM. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES, BUT THIS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AT THE LATEST, WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SITES NEAR THE WATER
ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS WILL MAINLY FEEL THE EFFECT OF THESE
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH MANY OF THEM ALSO SEEING LLWS, MAINLY SPEED
SHEAR, FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 30 KTS.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WE ARE ALREADY SEEING INCREASED
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS LYNN CANAL THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BY TONIGHT, NORTHERLY GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS (34 TO 47 KTS) WILL SPREAD ACROSS GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES. ALONG WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TO DEVELOP. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
TODAY WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
BY TOMORROW. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK NEEDING TO REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG
WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY,
DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER
VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-641-643-661>663.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-642-644-651-652-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP/EAL
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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