387
FXAK67 PAJK 161417
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
517 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
THE LAST REMAINING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK ARE DEPARTING THE PANHANDLE AS OF THE TIME OF
WRITING. THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL DIVE OFF TO THE SE,
USHERING IN STRENGTHENING OUTFLOW WINDS. ALREADY, GALE FORCE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEGUN APPEARING ACROSS MANY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. AS SE AK ENTERS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN, SKIES WILL LARGELY
CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL START UP FOR THE USUAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS AS COLD AIR SPILLS OVER THE PASSES IN THE
COAST VALLEY MOUNTAINS, WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE OUTER COAST (SITKA)
AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LIKELY TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ANY PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, AND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SE AK MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER A DOWNWARD TREND TO SOME EXTENT
ON TUESDAY AS THE EASTERN FLANK OF A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVER THE WEEK THE
PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY,
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON
WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE, FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS
EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS SERIOUS
IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE. FOR NOW,
THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN LYNN
INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RELAX THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WINDS
DIMINISHING AS LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS
CATCH YOU OFF GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST
GALES SOMETIME BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH- SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY BECOMES A THREAT FOR
MOST INNER CHANNELS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATE WEEK. HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, STIKINE INLET,
AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING
MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY
SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
OFFSHORE CONDITIONS HAVE
BEGUN ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND ARE THE LAST AREAS TO GET RID OF
PRECIPITATION WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LASTING
INTO THIS MORNING. FOR THESE SOUTHERN AREAS, CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CEILINGS NOW AROUND 3000 FT. THERE MAY STILL BE SHORT TIMES OF
MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2500 FT, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE.
OTHERWISE, OUTFLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SE AK. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED WINDS AND
LLWS. AREAS THAT WILL SEE WIND SHEAR, OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT 2000 FT,
WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR SITKA, AND AREAS THAT
ARE AFFECTED BY GAP WINDS/OUTFLOW WINDS. SPECIFICALLY THOSE AREAS
ARE MAINLY OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU (FROM TAKU INLET) AND NEAR WRANGELL
(OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN). THOSE AREAS, ALONG WITH SKAGWAY
AND HAINES, WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TODAY. THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 MPH OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WIND ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY PRESENT IN
STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED NORTHERLY GALE FORCE TO
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KTS) WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND CHATHAM STRAIT.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, AS
THE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY WEAKENS. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS,
DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. AREAS OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF LYNN CANAL AND
GLACIER BAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK NEEDING TO REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG
WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY,
DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER
VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-643-644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-641-642-652-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP/EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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