172
FXAK67 PAJK 161807
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
907 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS TO INCLUDE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE AND WIND UPDATES...
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING STRONG WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS.
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
THE LAST REMAINING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK ARE DEPARTING THE PANHANDLE AS OF THE TIME OF
WRITING. THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL DIVE OFF TO THE SE,
USHERING IN STRENGTHENING OUTFLOW WINDS. ALREADY, GALE FORCE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEGUN APPEARING ACROSS MANY OF THE INNER
CHANNELS. AS SE AK ENTERS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN, SKIES WILL LARGELY
CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL START UP FOR THE USUAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS AS COLD AIR SPILLS OVER THE PASSES IN THE
COAST VALLEY MOUNTAINS, WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE OUTER COAST (SITKA)
AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LIKELY TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ANY PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, AND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SE AK MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER A DOWNWARD TREND TO SOME EXTENT
ON TUESDAY AS THE EASTERN FLANK OF A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVER THE WEEK THE
PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, FREEZING SPRAY,
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SUDDEN RETURN TO TRUE WINTER. TOUCHING ON
WIND FIRST, WE REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU BRINGING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS THE POTENTIAL OF GALE, TO STRONG GALE, FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS
EBBING AND FLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH HAS SERIOUS
IMPLICATIONS ON MARINERS SAFELY NAVIGATING THE INSIDE. FOR NOW,
THE PUBLISHED FORECAST HAS STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN LYNN
INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RELAX THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WINDS
DIMINISHING AS LOW AS STRONG BREEZES. HOWEVER, DO NOT LET THIS
CATCH YOU OFF GUARD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AT LEAST
GALES SOMETIME BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS A STRONG NORTH- SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT BUILDS BACK. FREEZING SPRAY REALLY BECOMES A THREAT FOR
MOST INNER CHANNELS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR LATE WEEK. HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, STIKINE INLET,
AND UNUK RIVER INLET.
IT WILL BECOME VERY COLD, BELOW 0F IN THE NORTH, SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND TEENS TO LOW 20FS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A STOUT RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC, PERHAPS
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY. GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR DRIVING
MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE ONCE MORE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THAN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, WITH SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, NAMELY LYNN CANAL, AND DANGEROUS FREEZING SPRAY
SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
SEEING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. KETCHIKAN WAS THE LAST SITE TO
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW
OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH RAIN OBSTRUCTING VIS AND BRINGING CIGS
DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO SOLIDLY VFR BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. AS THIS
OUTFLOW PATTERN STRENGTHENS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WIND SPEEDS
WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 TO 40 KTS FOR SITES UNSHELTERED TO A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LLWS, SPECIFICALLY SPEED SHEAR, OF AROUND 30 TO
40 KTS AT 2000 FT WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR
SITKA, AND AREAS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY GAP WINDS/OUTFLOW WINDS.
SPECIFICALLY, THOSE AREAS ARE MAINLY OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU (FROM
TAKU INLET) AND NEAR WRANGELL (OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER BASIN).
THOSE AREAS, ALONG WITH SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WILL SEE THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS TODAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WHILE WE WERE OFF TO A SLOW START SUNDAY
NIGHT REGARDING WINDS, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW RAMP UP
ACROSS THE INSIDE, WITH GALE FORCE ONGOING IN STEPHENS NEAR FIVE
FINGERS AND ALSO DOWN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAIT (WEST OF POINT
BAKER). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, REACHING THEIR PEAKS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS GALE TO
STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN TAKU INLET, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL,
AND GLACIER BAY. WINDS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BY WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
15 TO 20 FT LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE AND OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO MARINERS TRANSITING ALONG THE N
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK NEEDING TO REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS OF STRONG
WINDS OUT OF OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND, YAKUTAT BAY,
DISENCHANTMENT BAY, ALSEK RIVER VALLEY, AND THE DANGEROUS RIVER
VALLEY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-643-644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-641-642-652-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP/EAL
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS/AP
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