639
FXAK67 PAJK 170007
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP TONIGHT FOR MOST INNER
CHANNELS REACHING PEAK INTENSITY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
MONDAY MORNING, A 997MB LOW WAS PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OUTSIDE, GALE FORCE
NORTH WESTERLIES WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE GULF, DRIVING FRESH SEAS
OF 17+FT. IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW WINDS
WERE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS, WHICH WILL REACH
PEAK INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF STRONG GALE FORCE FORECASTED FOR MOST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PASSAGES. TUESDAY, COLD AND CLEAR WITH BE THE NAME OF THE
GAME, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH, PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILL IN
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY / UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
ACROSS THE ALASKAN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORT A WEATHER
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FEATURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY PUSHING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) TO THE INNER CHANNELS. NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM.
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RESTART THE OUTFLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND OUT OF INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN SO FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A MARINE
THREAT AGAIN HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE SEEING EITHER CLEAR SKIES OR
A FEW VERY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING FOR A MAJORITY OF SITES, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SITES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE
A BREAK IN THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY PICK BACK UP
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO POTENTIALLY 5 TO 10 KTS HIGHER THAN THE PEAK GUST EACH
SITE REACHED MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND
BLOWING THROUGH LYNN CANAL. LLWS, SPECIFICALLY SPEED SHEAR OF
AROUND 30 KTS AT 2000 FT, CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT OVER MULTIPLE
SITES IN THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW OR GAP WINDS. OVERALL, CLEAR BUT
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
MONDAY MORNING WINDS WERE LIGHT TO STRONG BREEZES OUT OF THE
NORTH ALONG THE NORTHER COAST, WITH WSW SWELL AT 7 TO 10 FT, NEAR
10 SECONDS. IN THE CENTRAL NORTHWEST GULF GALE FORCE WINDS WERE
WIDESPREAD, DRIVING SEAS OF 20 FT, WITH THESE FRESH SEAS SPREADING
AS FAR EAST AS SITKA. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL NW SEAS, MASKING SW SWELL GENERATED
FROM A SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 12FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OUT OF MAJOR INLETS/BAYS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, REACHING GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE, GENERATING
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON OUTFLOW WINDS WERE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
WITH INTENSITY, WHICH WILL REACH THEIR PEAKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG GALE FORCE
IN LYNN CANAL, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG AND NORTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE FREEZING SPRAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PRIME AREAS LIKE NORTHERN LYNN AND TAKU
INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS NOW FORECASTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, FRIDAY EVENING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE FORCE FOR MOST CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE
EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-652-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...AP
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