766
FXAK67 PAJK 170607
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
907 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATE
BROUGHT WINDS BACK UP IN THE JUNEAU AREA DUE TO AN INDUCED
CRITICAL LAYER FROM STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. PROFILER DATA IN
ADDITION TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SUCH AS SHEEP MOUNTAIN, SHOW THAT
AREAS ALOFT ARE BLOWING IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION, HAVE WINDS DOWNSLOPING
INTO THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN
RESPONSE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TONIGHT; HOWEVER, DID NOT SEE ENOUGH CREDIBLE EVIDENCE TO ISSUE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP TONIGHT FOR MOST INNER
CHANNELS REACHING PEAK INTENSITY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY MORNING, A 997MB LOW WAS PUSHING SOUTH OUT
OF THE PANHANDLE, WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OUTSIDE, GALE FORCE
NORTH WESTERLIES WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE GULF, DRIVING FRESH SEAS
OF 17+FT. IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW WINDS
WERE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS, WHICH WILL REACH
PEAK INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF STRONG GALE FORCE FORECASTED FOR MOST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PASSAGES. TUESDAY, COLD AND CLEAR WITH BE THE NAME OF THE
GAME, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH, PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILL IN
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM.../ WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY / UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
ACROSS THE ALASKAN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEATHER
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH OUTFLOW WINDS FOR WED INTO FRI. THE FEATURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY PUSHING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) TO THE INNER CHANNELS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THOUGH A FEW
INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER COAST.
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RESTART THE OUTFLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND OUT OF INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. THIS
OUTFLOW EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STRONGER THEN THE OUTFLOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. LYNN CANAL MIGHT ALSO HIT MIN
STORM FORCE. WITH THE OUTFLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN
AGAIN SO FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A WIDESPREAD MARINE THREAT AGAIN
HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY A POSSIBILITY IN LYNN CANAL
AND NEAR TAKU INLET.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY/...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND
DECAYING STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER POINTS FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS ARE THE CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS AT MANY TAF SITES IN THE NORTHERN
2/3RD OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTIONS NOT NORMALLY SEEN, SUCH AS SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS IN
JUNEAU AND SITKA. EXPECTING TO SEE A BULK OF THESE WINDS TO DIE
OFF IN THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
LLWS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUNEAU.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
MONDAY MORNING WINDS WERE LIGHT TO STRONG BREEZES OUT OF THE
NORTH ALONG THE NORTHER COAST, WITH WSW SWELL AT 7 TO 10 FT, NEAR
10 SECONDS. IN THE CENTRAL NORTHWEST GULF GALE FORCE WINDS WERE
WIDESPREAD, DRIVING SEAS OF 20 FT, WITH THESE FRESH SEAS SPREADING
AS FAR EAST AS SITKA. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL NW SEAS, MASKING SW SWELL GENERATED
FROM A SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 12FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OUT OF MAJOR INLETS/BAYS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, REACHING GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE, GENERATING
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON OUTFLOW WINDS WERE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
WITH INTENSITY, WHICH WILL REACH THEIR PEAKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG GALE FORCE
IN LYNN CANAL, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG AND NORTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE FREEZING SPRAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PRIME AREAS LIKE NORTHERN LYNN AND TAKU
INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS NOW FORECASTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, FRIDAY EVENING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE FORCE FOR MOST CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE
EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318-325.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-652-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...AP
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