748
FXAK67 PAJK 171805
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
905 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATE.../UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
DRY WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES, AND COOL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ABOUND FOR SE AK THROUGH TUESDAY, AS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
ALOFT, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL DIVE SE AS THE
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD, LEAVING BEHIND A
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM JET IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER (WEAKER) RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO REBUILD AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET, THE EFFECTS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL STILL BE PRONOUNCED. NAMELY, THE COLLAPSE OF THE
OUTFLOW WINDS. GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS COINCIDING WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS AND A TAKU WIND EVENT FOR JUNEAU WILL ALL ENTER A
DOWNWARD TREND BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE ~10 - 15 KT RANGE OVER MOST MARITIME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURE WISE, THE COLLAPSE OF THE WINDS WILL UNDERMINE
DOWNSLOPING'S MITIGATING IMPACTS ON COLD TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW
TEENS FOR MANY LOCATIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF DISINTEGRATES AS IT MOVES EAST, ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER OUT OF THE
NW WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF
WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY / UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
ACROSS THE ALASKAN MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEATHER
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL ALSO HELP TO
DIMINISH OUTFLOW WINDS FOR WED INTO FRI. THE FEATURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY PUSHING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) TO THE INNER CHANNELS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THOUGH A FEW
INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER COAST.
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL RESTART THE OUTFLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND OUT OF INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. THIS
OUTFLOW EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STRONGER THEN THE OUTFLOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. LYNN CANAL MIGHT ALSO HIT MIN
STORM FORCE. WITH THE OUTFLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN
AGAIN SO FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A WIDESPREAD MARINE THREAT AGAIN
HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY A POSSIBILITY IN LYNN CANAL
AND NEAR TAKU INLET.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ALMOST ALL SITES SEEING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES AND PERFECT VIS. THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, WHICH ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS SHELTERED
FROM A N OR NE WIND HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO AOB 7 KTS THIS
MORNING, WHILE REMAINING SITES ARE HOLDING ONTO GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. AS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF
THESE REMAINING SITES WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND DROP DOWN TO BELOW 10
KTS. A FEW AREAS, INCLUDING JUNEAU, SKAGWAY, AND WRANGELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INFREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LLWS HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL, WITH ONLY JUNEAU AND
WRANGELL SEEING UP TO 30 KTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 FT FROM THE TAKU AND THE STIKINE RESPECTIVELY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT OVERALL DIMINISH INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE CHANNELS DIMINISHES THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN, WITH RESIDUAL NW SEAS,
MASKING SW SWELL GENERATED FROM A SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS LESS THAN 12FT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND BETWEEN 5-9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OVER THE OPEN GULF. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW OUT OF MAJOR INLETS/BAYS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST,
REACHING GALE TO STRONG GALE FORCE, GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
TUESDAY DAWNS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE HOWLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS, ALONG WITH USUAL OUTFLOW
AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG
GALE FORCE IN LYNN CANAL, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG AND NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE FREEZING
SPRAY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR PRIME AREAS LIKE
NORTHERN LYNN AND TAKU INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
FRIDAY EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP TO GALE FORCE
FOR MOST CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHANNELS WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-053.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-643.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>035-053-641-642-644-651-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS/AP
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